Timber (Litter and Understory)

Timber (Grass and Understory)

Brush (2 feet)

Fuel moistures are historically low, ERCs and BI are in the 97-99%. Northern California remains under a Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory.

Observed Fire Behavior or Significant Events for the Time Period Reported (describe fire behavior using accepted terminology. For non-fire incidents, describe significant events related to the materials or other causal agents):

Active

Group Torching

Uphill Runs

Short-range Spotting

Narrative: Fire continues to burn through steadily heavy timber, dead and down material, and ground litter. Short range spotting and rollout challenge control lines. Heavy smoke over the fire area has dampened large fire growth but hasn't prevented further advancement on most of the flanks. Drought conditions and extremely dry fuels make control efforts challenging, but allows for almost complete combustion of heavy fuels.

Moderate Risk burn environment. Expect fire behavior to increase with clear skies. Our current weather is forecasted to

become hotter and dryer throughout the week. Haines of 5 will introduce unstable air over the incident. Potential for

Plume dominated fire behavior due to instability. All Fuels remain available. Forecasted SW winds will be a contributing factor in fire spread. Fuel moistures remain critically low for both live and dead. The Energy Release Component is above the 97th percentile and climbing. All thresholds for the Plumas Central have been exceeded.

Construct direct and indirect line to secure fire perimeter.

Unable to staff contingency lines due to all resources committed to Fire Front Following, providing structure defense in surrounding impacted communities.

Provide structure defense in communities at risk: Chester, Hwy 36 corridor, Hwy 89 Corridor, Paxton, Greenville, Jonesville, Crescent Mills, Taylorsville, Prattville, Canyondam, Butte Meadows, Bucks Lake, Meadows Valley, Rush Creek, Warner Valley, Pecks Valley, Williams Valley, Hunt Canyon, and Greater Almanor area.

Protect threatened areas of Janesville, Indicator Peak and Loan Peak. Heavy mop and patrol of communities impacted by the fire front.

Continued mop up of and patrol of 1,000-hr fuels will require a significant amount of resources due to the volume of fuels and the steep and rugged terrain.

Firing operations will continue in the West Zone - Division Juliet as weather and staffing allows.

Preparation for firing operations around Dyer Mountain.

12 hours: Moderate overnight conditions. Overnight recovery will increase slightly, allowing the opportunity for crews to make progress on building containment lines and firing operations.

24 hours: Slightly Warmer today. Expect a Moderate risk burn environment due to higher temps, low RH and extremely receptive fuels. The atmosphere will be unstable with a Haines of 6. Forecasted winds will be SW16 mph with 15% cloud cover. Fire behavior will consist of wind driven surface fire, isolated torching and spotting. Moderate overnight recoveries may provide opportunity for line construction and firing operations. Local thresholds will be exceeded. Expect comparable fire behavior as the previous operational period. The fire will most likely spread to the North and Northeast due to sustained SW winds.

48 hours: High risk burn environment due to potential thunderstorms in the region. Temperatures will be in the 100's

today and will heat up over the next few operational periods. 30% cloud cover forecasted during the burning

48 hours: period. Fire behavior has the potential to transition to very active. Fire behavior would include wind driven surface fire, group torching, crown runs with alignment and spotting. Moderate overnight recoveries may provide opportunity for line construction and firing operations. Local thresholds will be exceeded. Expect an increase in fire activity with clear air.

72 hours: Temperatures will be in the triple digits over the next few shifts. High risk burn environment due to potential thunderstorms in the region. Expect comparable fire behavior as the previous operational period. Forecasted hot and dry weather through the end of the week.

Anticipated after 72 hours: Expect similar burning conditions. Temperatures will remain in the high 90s. Models indicate potential moisture in the atmosphere with limited confidence.

California Interagency Incident Management Team 4 (CIIMT 4) is in command of the East Zone.

CALFIRE IMT 3 is in command of the West Zone.

Acreage by DPA:

State - 71,919

NPS - 9,320

FS - 408,965

EAST ZONE:

Afternoon temperatures climbed into the 90s with a few localized triple digit readings. Minimum relative humidity values dipped into the low teens with a few localized single digit RH values observed. Variable drainage winds shifted to southwest and up-canyon directions in the afternoon with gusts around 10-18 MPH.

Tonight: mostly clear but anticipate smoky conditions to return with subsequent impacts to visibility. Overnight humidity recoveries will be poor to moderate. Southwest winds will give way to weak drainage winds overnight.

WEST ZONE:

Thick smoke blanketed parts of the incident, especially over the western sections while the smoke did thin out somewhat over the east. The smoke shading kept highs in the 80s but where more sunshine was seen, temperatures warmed into the 90s. Humidity dropped to 10 to 15%. Winds were light just about everywhere across the incident with most areas averaging less than 8 mph and largely driven by terrain. Smoke is expected to fill back in early during the evening hours with whatever winds there are, becoming down slope down canyon. Temperatures are anticipated to drop into the 70s by midnight and humidity recovery into the mid to upper 20th percentile.

High pressure continues to build over the incident and will be the dominant weather feature moving forward. This will result in continued warm and dry conditions with winds light and primarily terrain driven, averaging less than 10 mph. Smoke will remain hard to scour out and will moderate weather conditions somewhat. Moisture levels will be increasing late in the week with isolated thunderstorms not out of the realm of possibility on Thursday and Friday.