Timber (Litter and Understory)

Brush (2 feet)

Medium Logging Slash

Predominate fuels are timber, dry climate brush, logging and fuels reduction slash.

Active; Uphill Runs; Torching; Spotting

Narrative: Three consecutive days of low day and poor nighttime humidity, fire activity has picked up. Active surface fire with moderate surface fire with torching runs, high probability of ignition and moderate spotting distance. Spot fires difficult to contain.

Provide Rural Structure Protection. Reinforce, secure, mop up & patrol existing lines in all Divisions. Continue construction and prep of contingency lines on the west flank. Continue cold trailing in the north end grass and sage fuels. Continue to prep for firing operations & scout opportunities to go more direct on west flank.

12 hours: Timber fuel models support moderate intensity surface fire, single to small group torching, and increased probability of ignition. Torching runs possible today. Continued consumption of heavy fuels. Higher windspeed this period will allow for more rapid spread than the previous few days.

24 hours: Fuels exposed to several nights of poor day and nighttime humidity recovery will support active surface fire with group torching, high probability of ignition and rapid spread rates. Spotting distance decreases for the period as the gusty winds abate. Initiating fire will be difficult to contain.

48 hours: Gusty, prefrontal winds will be present on the fire this afternoon. Active surface fire with spread potential in all directions will be possible. Long range spotting with a high probability of ignition.

72 hours: Frontal winds (potentially gusting to 35-40 mph) could produce extreme rates of spread today on the heels of several days and nights of poor humidity recovery. Torching runs on exposed ridges possible with long range spotting and high probability of ignition.

Anticipated after 72 hours:

Frontal winds (potentially gusting to 35-40 mph) could produce extreme rates of spread in the morning hours on the heels of several days and nights of poor humidity recovery. Torching runs on exposed ridges possible with long range spotting and high probability of ignition until the arrival of wetting rain in the afternoon hours.

West-southwest ridgetop winds ahead of a cool front developed this afternoon with sustained ridgetop speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts less than 25 mph. Sheltered valleys exhibited more of a light diurnal wind pattern. Temperatures were a couple of degrees cooler with highs in the 60s at higher elevations to middle 70s in valleys. Dry conditions continued with poor mid and upper slope recoveries this morning, falling into the 15-20% range this afternoon.

The cool front will bring northwest winds to the area this evening, with light remnant north to northeast winds Thursday along with slightly cooler temperatures. Humidity will improve slightly with moderate recoveries expected through Saturday morning with minimum daytime values staying above 15%. A strong Pacific Northwest storm system approaches the area Friday bringing gusty southwest winds and elevated fire weather conditions to Lake County. Even stronger southwest winds arrive Saturday before expected rain moves in late Saturday into Sunday. Wetting rains are likely. Rain chances taper off Monday with cooler than normal temperatures including some freezing temperatures overnight, and lighter winds heading into Tuesday.

Timber (Litter and Understory)

Brush (2 feet)

Medium Logging Slash

Predominate fuels are timber, dry climate brush, logging and fuels reduction slash.

Moderate; creeping; torching; spotting

Narrative: Fuels recovering rapidly from the recent rain event. Surface fire moved today from the low category (low intensity, low probability of ignition, infrequent torching) to moderate activity. Aviation assets utilized to assist spot fire suppression.

Provide Rural Structure Protection. Reinforce control lines on South and East. Continue construction and prep of contingency lines on west flank. Continue cold trailing in the north end grass and sage fuels. Construct handlines to tie multiple dozer lines together along the east flank. Continue scouting for

opportunities.

12 hours: Uptick in fire behavior expected. Overnight recoveries diminish significantly over the next 4 days. Moderate surface fire with single and small group torching likely. Light winds for this period limit spotting distance, however probability of ignition will rise each day as daytime humidity also deteriorate.

24 hours: Timber fuel models support moderate intensity surface fire, single to small group torching, increased probability of ignition. Torching runs possible today. Continued consumption of heavy fuels.

48 hours: Fuels exposed to several nights of poor day and nighttime humidity recovery will support active surface fire with group torching, high probability of ignition and rapid spread rates.

72 hours: Gusty, prefrontal winds will be present on the fire today. Active surface fire with spread potential in all directions will be possible. Long range spotting with a high probability of ignition is likely.

Anticipated after 72 hours:

Frontal winds (potentially gusting to 35-40 mph) could produce extreme rates of spread today on the heels of several days and nights of poor humidity recovery. Crown runs on exposed ridges possible with long range spotting and high probability of ignition.

A light north to northeast wind 5-10 mph developed along ridgetops and exposed slopes in the afternoon after a cool front passed through the area last night. Otherwise, light terrain driven winds were observed in most valleys. Temperatures were a few degrees cooler in the 60s and lower 70s with good overnight RH recoveries still dropping around 20% in the afternoon. A few high clouds passed over the area in the early afternoon with slightly better visibility throughout Lake County.

Light terrain-driven winds will prevail through Tuesday but a very dry air mass moving into the area will result in poor overnight recoveries in the 30-40% range at higher elevations, dropping to around 10% for many lower valleys in the afternoon. Another weak cold front moves through Wednesday bringing enhanced west to northwest winds and no precipitation. Light winds and dry conditions are expected Thursday with a stronger storm system arriving for the end of the week. Gusty west-southwest winds are expected Friday and Saturday as robust cold Pacific trough moves through the region with increasing rain chances beginning early Saturday morning.