Above normal temperatures through the fall.
Slightly above normal monsoonal moisture possible in September/early October.
Large fire potential will be well above normal across most areas…especially the Sierra Foothills.
Large fire potential returning to near normal from north to south late fall/early winter.
Near to slightly below normal offshore wind events expected this fall.
September 18, 2017 - Predicitve Services has released the Fuels and Drought Outlook for Central and Southern California for September through December 2017.
The hot, dry weather over the past month punished both live and dead vegetation. Dead fuel moisture plunged to near record low readings over many lower elevation sites. Some modest, temporary recoveries were seen in mid-August, but by the end of the month, fuel moisture conditions was scraping the bottom of the charts over many Predictive Service Areas (Figure 4, below).Live fuel moisture continues to hover near normal over many areas near the coast, but further inland, fuels are drawing closer to critically dry levels. In some areas, fuel beds are dominated by dead fuels as a result of the 5 year drought and the bark beetle. The Sierra Foothills continues to see the most pervasive fire activity due to the combination of dense, cured fine fuels under a forest marred by a high concentration of dead trees. At the time of this writing, nearly 114,000 acres in the Sierra Foothills have been consumed by large fires (this figure does not include small incidents where no ICS-209 was filed). This area will continue see the highest likelihood of fires through September and October. Large fire potential should decrease in this area in November due to a lower sun angle, longer nights and the arrival of precipitation from north to south.
Fuel conditions dictate that this will be very active and potentially dangerous fall wildfire season. The interface of a high amount of fine fuel loading in stands of dead trees will allow fires to transition rapidly into the heavier fuels during hot or windy periods. Extremely low fuel moisture will lead to very active fire behavior where slope and terrain are in alignment, even during non-windy periods. Readers of this outlook are reminded to utilize safety protocol, including LCES, when engaged with fire this fall.
Source: Predicitve Services