WeatherStory15.2

Projected rainfall totals for Mariposa: 1.50" to 2.00"

Projected rainfall totals for Oakhurst: 1.00" to 1.50"
Projected rainfall totals for Yosemite Valley: 1.50" to 2.00"

May 15, 2019 - The National Weather Service Hanford Office reports a storm system will impact Central California Wednesday night into early Friday morning.

Heavy snow is likely in the Southern Sierra Nevada above 7,000 feet, where a Winter Storm Warning is in effect.

Most of this precipitation will fall Wednesday night & Thursday morning.

  Area Forecast Discussion 
  National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA 
  225 AM PDT Wed May 15 2019 
   
  .SYNOPSIS... 
  A disturbance will impact the forecast area starting tonight 
  through Friday morning brining valley rain and mountain snow. A  
  series of storm systems arriving on Saturday night and continuing 
  through Tuesday will bring unsettled wet weather to the region.  
   
  && 
   
  .DISCUSSION... 
  Today, there will be a sharp fall in high temperatures today due  
  significant cloud cover associated with the upcoming  
  trough/atmospheric river event coming tonight, leading to highs  
  5-9 degrees cooler than yesterday. By mid afternoon today, a few  
  upsloping showers will be possible in the Sierra Nevada north of  
  Tulare County, with increasing coverage towards the evening. A few 
  showers may also be possible in the valley this evening as  
  difluent pattern aloft occurs over the district. By tonight, high  
  resolution model guidance is showing the cold frontal band/heavy  
  rain passing through the CWA between 06z and 15z depending on  
  location. Locally gusty winds in the western portion of the valley 
  will precede the frontal passage as well. Rainfall totals near  
  1/2" to 3/4" may occur through tomorrow morning in the northern  
  portion of the SJ Valley and totals up to 1/3" in the southern  
  portion of the valley. In terms of mountain snow, snow levels will 
  begin around 8500 feet in the Southern Sierra tonight, and will  
  fall to around 5000-5500 feet by late Thursday morning. See our  
  Winter Storm Warning for more details on the Sierra Nevada snow. 
   
  Post frontal convective activity also would seem conceivable 
  tomorrow afternoon in the SJ Valley, especially if there are  
  breaks in the clouds by late morning. Thunderstorms that may occur 
  under the cold pooling aloft could be capable of small hail,  
  gusty winds, locally heavy rain, and perhaps even a funnel cloud  
  or two -- much like the thunderstorms we saw earlier this year   
  Jan through March. Lingering moisture from today`s/tomorrow`s  
  storm may induce light precipitation Friday as a weak impulse  
  grazes the forecast area. Late Friday night/Saturday morning, ECM  
  and GFS are showing shortwave ridging occuring over Central  
  California, which may provide a brief break from the active  
  weather. However, this ridge will quickly be broken down as  
  another storm approaches the CWA from the northwest. Additional  
  valley rain and mountain snow are progged to occur with this  
  system through Sunday, but details on accumulations are not clear  
  yet.  
   
  By Monday, there could be another break from the precipitation in 
  Central California before another storm on Tuesday, however the  
  specific details of this third storm are not clear this far out. 
  Thereafter, EPS progs show the Pacific Jet staying active/very  
  strong through the foreseeable future, which likely corresponds  
  with the CPC`s Day 6-10 and 8-14 Precipitation Outlook, which both 
  have California at above-normal precip chances compared to May  
  climatology favored. 
Source: NWS