Projected Precipitation for Mariposa 1.00"- 1.50"
Projected Precipitation for Oakhurst 1.00"- 1.50"
Projected Precipitation for Yosemite Valley 2.00"- 3.00"
February 3, 2023 - The National Weather Service Hanford Office reports the next storm system will impact Central California Saturday night and Sunday, resulting in snow in the Sierra Nevada and rain in the San Joaquin Valley.
Snow levels will start at around 6,500 feet Saturday night, before dropping to about 4,000 feet by Sunday evening.
The majority of the precipitation will fall late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
305 AM PST Fri Feb 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will continue across the
region through this morning. A weak trough will move through the
area later today and bring a slight chance of light rain to areas
on the north side of Merced County. A stronger disturbance will
move through the area and bring rain to the San Joaquin Valley and
snow to the Sierra Nevada on Sunday. Afterwards, dry and cool
conditions will return to the area as next week begins.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The next storm is now approaching the West Coast and expected to
hit Northern California today. Regional Doppler radar show the
precipitation moving ashore over Northern California and moderate
precipitation just off the California Coast. The track of the
precipitation is pushing it northeast as Merced County and
Yosemite have a slight potential of observing measurable
precipitation today. Otherwise, the bulk of todays storm will
focus on Northern California before the storm diminishes later
tonight. Afterward, the next storm to hit Central California will
push into the area late Saturday night and into Sunday. While not
a major precipitation producer, the next storm will have its
origins from Atmospheric River territory. Therefore, Sunday will
see another significant precipitation producer on Sunday as winter
in California continues.
Short-range ensemble solutions show the next precipitation event
having a minimal impact on Central California. Ensemble moisture
solutions show the track moving northeast as the steering current
keeps Central California dry. Therefore, will focus on the storm
that follows the current event and timed for Sunday.
Looking further out, ensemble solutions show a more organized
storm hitting Central California starting very late Saturday
night. Models place a better fetch of subtropical moisture surging
toward California on Saturday and Sunday before diminishing on
Monday. Therefore, will expect enhanced precipitation rates as
models place good jet-streak dynamics over Central California
which will in-phase with the plume of atmospheric river moisture
crossing the area. Presently, models place the heaviest
precipitation over Central California on Sunday morning as
orographic effects allow for values to reach over one inch of
liquid water. Total precipitation values could reach 1.5 to 2
inches of liquid while the lower elevations will see a quarter to
half of an inch of rain. Ensembles are expecting a weak
atmospheric river as lower precipitation values will be observed
across the valley with less than one inch being more common along
with some rain shadowing also occurring over the west side of the
San Joaquin Valley. This will be due to the orientation of the
southwesterly flow during the event.
Based on the precipitation totals, models place snow levels near
the 6500 to 7000 feet at the start of the event. Yet, with the
frontal passage occurring early Sunday, will see snow level lower
to near 4000 feet by Sunday afternoon. This will allow some lower
elevations to see snow while the higher terrain observed as much
as two feet of new snow. Hopefully, the lower snow levels will
limit the threat of more water on an already saturated ground. In
addition, the track of better dynamics will favor convective
activity over Northern California on Sunday. Yet, will have to
watch for increased convective potential as Central California
experiences winter weather.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mountain obscuring MVFR or lower conditions are possible across
the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and
evening. VFR conditions will prevail across our county warning
area through the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Friday February 3 2023...Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno and Kern Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is:
No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern Counties. No Burning Unless
Registered in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning
Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening
for CAZ323-325>330.
Source: NWS
