Projected Rainfall for Mariposa and Oakhurst 3.00" to 4.00"
Projected Snowfall for Mariposa: 0
Projected Snowfall for Oakhurst: Less than 1 inch
Projected Rainfall for Yosemite Valley: 4.00" to 6.00"
Projected Snowfall for Yosemite Valley: 12 to 18 inches
March 16, 2023 - The National Weather Service Hanford Office reports a strong storm system may bring periods of moderate to heavy precipitation to Central California on Monday through Wednesday.
Snow levels are expected to be around 5,000 feet Monday and Tuesday then possibly 3,000 feet on Wednesday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
306 AM PDT Thu Mar 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Other than some upslope clouds along the foothills
and valley facing slopes this morning, mainly clear skies and calm
weather will continue through Saturday. A weak system may move
through and produce some light precipitation, but the next main
system will move in on Monday and go through Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Shortwave ridging which built into central CA yday
has pushed precipitation out of the area. Some lingering upslope
low clouds persist along the Sierra foothills and the valley
facing slopes of the San Joaquin Valley but expect the low clouds
to dissipate by midday. Other than a slight chance of light
precipitation near Yosemite Park this afternoon and evening, dry
conditions with mild seasonable temperatures will prevail across
the area through Saturday.
The next system that will bring widespread precipitation to our
area will move through the region Sunday morning through Sunday
evening. Impacts from this system are expected to be minimal as
precipitation with this system is anticiapted to be light with a
quarter to a half inch of liquid precipitation in the Sierra
Nevada from Sequoia National Park northward, between a tenth and a
quarter inch of rainfall is expected along the adjacent foothills
with a tenth of an inch or less expected elsewhere in our CWFA.
A much stronger system is progged to impact central CA by Monday
as a large upper trough approaches the CA coast. The trough is
progged to move through CA on Tuesday and Wednesday. GEFS IWVT is
showing a strong atmospheric river accompanying this system with a
deep moisture fetch extending beyond the central Pacific. QPF
progs have been trending higher for this period with most of the
San Joaquin Valley expected to pick up between 1 and 2 inches of
rainfall. The Sierra foothills picking up between 2 and 4 inches
of rainfall and the higher Sierra Nevada picking up between 3 and
6 inches of liquid precipitation. Snow levels are not expected to
be as high as they were with the recent system which brought
widespread flooding to our area with snow levels expected to be
between 5500 and 6000 feet on Monday and lower by about 1000 feet
a day through Wednesday. While flooding remains a threat from this
system due to significant precipitation falling on a very
saturated ground, disruptions to travel from winter weather will
likely be the main concern with adverse impacts possible in the
Sierra foothills and Kern County Mountains by next Wednesday. The
probabilities of exceedance of a half inch of rain for the San
Joaquin Valley on Tuesday is 35-55% and on Wednesday is 20-40%.
&&
.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR ceilings in low clouds along the Sierra
foothills and valley facing slopes until 18Z Thu. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail across the central CA interior for the
next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
Source: NWS