ABC News/Ipsos polling finds Trump has the advantage on key issues of the economy and inflation though

September 2, 2024 - Washington DC - New ABC News/Ipsos polling conducted after the Democratic National Convention finds Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump among Americans who plan to vote in November’s election, statistically unchanged from earlier in August. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s departure from the race and endorsement of Trump makes no difference to most Americans. On the topic of campaigns, a majority feel Harris is running her campaign well, while fewer feel the same about Trump. However, Americans continue to trust Trump more than Harris on the economy, inflation, and immigration. Yet, Americans still feel Harris, rather than Trump, is more qualified and physically and mentally fit to serve in office. For more on election legitimacy from this poll, read here.

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Detailed findings:

1. Harris has a slight lead over Trump among Americans who plan to vote in November. Few Americans say that RFK Jr leaving the race will change whether they support Trump.

• Harris’ four percentage-point lead over Trump is roughly in line with ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos polling conducted before the Democratic National Convention (DNC).
• Among people who support Harris, most (64%) strongly support her, 18% support her with some reservations, and 19% mainly dislike the other candidates.
• Among people who support Trump, 60% strongly support him. However, compared to Harris, nearly twice as many Trump supporters support him with reservations (31% support Trump with reservations vs. 18% for Harris).
• There is a similar gap around the “anti-vote”, that is those who support their candidate because they mainly dislike the other candidates. Compared to Trump’s support, twice as many Harris supporters are backing her because they mainly dislike other candidates (19% support Harris because they mainly dislike other candidates vs. 9% of Trump supporters).
• For most Americans (79%), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspending his campaign and supporting Trump makes no difference in their vote. About one in ten (12%) say that RFK Jr. supporting Trump makes them more likely to back him, while a nearly equal share (9%) are now less likely to support Trump.

2. In polling conducted after the DNC, a majority of Americans feel Harris is handling her campaign well, while fewer feel the same about Trump.

• Following the DNC, a majority of Americans (56%) feel Harris is handling her campaign for president well, while 42% feel she is handling her campaign poorly.
• Compared to Harris, fewer feel Trump is handling his campaign well (41% for Trump vs. 56% for Harris). A majority of Americans (57%) think that Trump is handling his campaign poorly.
• Slightly more Americans expect Harris (43%) to win the debate on September 10th than Trump (37%). Though, about one in five (18%) either expect a tie or don’t expect either of them to win.

3. However, Trump continues to outperform Harris on key issues, like the economy, inflation, and immigration, even as Harris holds an edge over Trump on questions of mental and physical fitness to serve.

• Americans trust Trump over Harris to handle the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border (Trump +9), the economy (Trump +8), and inflation (Trump +8). Americans view Harris as more trustworthy in protecting American democracy (Harris +7) and appointments to the Supreme Court (Harris +5). This is statistically unchanged from ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos polling conducted earlier in August.
• Harris continues to have a decisive advantage over Trump on her perceived mental and physical fitness. Significantly more Americans believe she rather than Trump is both in good enough physical health (57% Harris vs 25% Trump) and has the mental sharpness (47% Harris vs 37% Trump) it takes to serve effectively in office. Notably, in July prior to President Joe Biden announcing he would not seek reelection, Trump had the edge over Biden on the question of mental and physical fitness.
• A slim majority believe Harris is qualified to serve as president (53%). Around half say the same of Trump (47%), unchanged from before the DNC.

About the Study

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted August 23 to 27, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. Invitations were sent to 4,335 panelists, resulting in 2,496 completed interviews. In quality control, 47 respondents were removed for skipping half or more of the questions or completing the survey in the fastest 1 percent times. For more precise analysis, the survey includes oversamples of n=110 Black people, n=124 Hispanic people and n=122 people age 18-29, with these groups scaled to their correct proportion of the population in weighting.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. Two email reminders were sent to hard-to-reach respondents. Hard-to-reach is defined as 18-29 years old or non-Whites, less than high school or did not vote in the 2020 presidential election.  The remainder of the sample received one reminder email.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region by metropolitan status, household income, language dominance, 2020 presidential vote choice, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Language dominance benchmarks are from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS). The 2020 presidential vote choice benchmarks came from the federal elections 2020 election results for the U.S. President while the Party Identification came from the 2024 National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS). The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (No high school diploma or GED, High school graduate (high school diploma or the equivalent GED), Some college or Associate’s degree, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree or above)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) by Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Language Dominance (English dominant, Bilingual, Spanish dominant, non-Hispanic)
• 2020 Presidential Vote Choice (Biden, Trump, Another candidate, Not asked)
• Party Identification (Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Not lean, Lean Democrat, Democrat).

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.13. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

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Source: Ipsos