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Findings of a new Ipsos poll conducted among 2,009 residents of seven swing states

October 4, 2024 - Washington, D.C. -  Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remain locked in a close race across the swing states, according to an Ipsos poll conducted in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada following the same group of Americans across the election. Trump also continues to hold an advantage on key issues and is seen as having the advantage of presidential experience over Harris.

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Ipsos is following the same group of Americans nationally and in key swing states throughout the election cycle. To learn more about these Americans’ views, follow the links below:

September 2024 National polling
August 2024 National polling
August 2024 Swing State polling
June 2024 Swing State polling
May 2024 National polling

1. Trump and Harris remain statistically tied in the ballot in the swing states.

  • Among likely voters in the swing states, 47% say they would vote for Harris and 48% say they would vote for Trump. In comparison, Harris holds a small lead over Trump at the national level (48% Harris, 44% Trump).
  • Among likely voters who say they wouldn’t vote for Harris or Trump in the initial ballot question, more prefer Trump (50%) over Harris (33%). This pattern holds true at the national level as well.
  • Congressional races also remain toss-ups among likely voters in these swing states. Forty-four percent of respondents say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in their district, compared to 46% who say they would vote for the Republican candidate.
  • President Joe Biden’s approval rating among swing state residents is at 37%, roughly unchanged from the last wave in August (39%). ipsos1004

2. Just as it is at the national level, inflation or increasing costs is seen as the most important issue facing the country.

  • Half of swing state residents mark inflation as one of their top three issues while one in three (33%) mark it as their top concern. Immigration ranks as the second most important concern, with 33% of swing state residents marking it as one of their top three issues. Political extremism (22%) and crime or gun violence (21%) follow.
  • There are significant partisan divisions when it comes to the issue landscape. Looking at the what single issue Americans finds to be the most important at this time, Republicans (46%) are two times more likely than Democrats (21%) to mark inflation as their most important issue. Republicans (19%) are also more likely to say immigration is the most important issue to them than Democrats (2%). Conversely, Democrats (16%) are more likely to select political extremism or polarization as their top concern compared to Republicans (5%). Inflation is the top issue among in swing state residents

3. Trump continues to be seen as having a better plan for key issues heading into the election, such as the economy and immigration.

  • Swing state residents feel Trump has a better plan, policy, or approach than Harris when it comes to the economy (Trump+6) and immigration (Trump+12). Trump is also seen as better on war, foreign conflicts, or terrorism (Trump+10). Harris is seen as better on healthcare (Harris+11) and political extremism or threats to democracy (Harris+4). These trends are all roughly unchanged from the previous wave of polling in August.
  • These patterns are also true at the national level. Swing stte residents prefer Trump on immigration and Harris on healthcare

4. Harris is seen as part of the establishment, while Trump is seen as having the advantage of presidential experience.

  • Swing state residents are two times more likely to say Harris (35%) is “part of the establishment” compared to Trump (16%). They also feel that Harris is a person they can relate to (Harris+9) and represents a new way of doing things (Harris+6). Conversely, more swing state residents believe Trump has the advantage of presidential experience than Harris (Trump+26). 
  • Swing state residents feel Harris is a representative of change and the establishment

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted September 24 to October 1, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative probability sample of 2,009 adults age 18 or older from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. That includes 1,817 registered voters and 1,598 likely voters.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. A prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. No reminder emails were sent for this study.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.77. For registered voters, the margin of sampling error is 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, and the design effect is 1.53. For likely voters, the margin of sampling error is 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, and the design effect is 1.46. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for age by gender, race/ethnicity, education, metropolitan status, household income, party identification, and 2020 presidential vote choice. The demographic benchmarks came from 2024 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Party ID benchmarks are from the Pew NPORS 2024 study for the selected states, and the 2020 presidential vote choice benchmarks came from the Federal Election Commission. The weighting categories were as follows:

  • State (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) by Age (18-39, 40-64, 65+) by Gender (Male, Female)
  • State (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) by Race/Ethnicity (White only, non-Hispanic, non-White)
  • State (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) by Education (Some college or less, Bachelor or Higher)
  • State (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) by Metro Status (Metro, non-Metro)
  • State (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) by Household income (Less than $50,000, $50,000 to <$100,000 , $100,000 or higher)
  • Party ID (Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/None/Other/Did not vote, Lean Democrat, Democrat)
  • State (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) by 2020 Presidential Vote Choice (Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Another Candidate/Did not vote)

About Ipsos

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).
Source: Ipsos