October 14, 2024  -Washington, D.C. -  New ABC News/Ipsos polling finds Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a statistical tie among likely voters. However, among all Americans, Trump outperforms Harris on key issues, like the economy, inflation, and immigration, while Harris maintains her advantage on abortion and protecting American democracy. The majority of Americans support many of the economic policies that Harris and Trump have proposed. Lowering corporate income taxes is the only policy that a majority of Americans oppose. Read about these findings on ABC News.

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For more on this poll, click here to read about how Americans view potential Harris and Trump administrations: Most Americans feel both campaigns lack policy details as election approaches.

Detailed findings:

1. The race is tied among likely voters.

• Harris and Trump are in a statistical tie, with 51% of likely voters supporting Harris and 48% of likely voters supporting Trump.
• Among all Harris supporters, 84% say they are enthusiastic about supporting Harris, while 16% say they are not enthusiastic about supporting Harris.
• Among all Trump supporters, 77% are enthusiastic about supporting Trump, and 23% say they are not enthusiastic.
• Harris’ favorability among All Americans is split (-3 net, 47% unfavorable, and 44% favorable). However, significantly more Americans hold an unfavorable, rather than favorable, view of Trump (-23 net, 58% unfavorable, and 35% favorable).

2. Trump continues to outperform Harris on the economy, inflation, and immigration. Harris maintains her lead on abortion and protecting American democracy.

• Americans trust Trump more than Harris to handle the economy (+8 Trump) and inflation (+7 Trump). At the same time, three in five (59%) feel the economy is getting worse. Only 23% feel the economy is getting better, and 18% say the economy is the same.
• Likewise, more trust Trump over Harris on immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border (+10 Trump), the conflict in the Middle East (+8 Trump), and national security (+5 Trump).
• However, more trust Harris over Trump on abortion (+15 Harris), protecting American democracy (+6 Harris), and looking out for the middle class (+5 Harris).
• There have been no statistically significant shifts on these questions since ABC News/Ipsos polled on them this September.
• About half (48%) of Americans think Harris is too liberal, 41% feel she is about right, and 7% say she is too conservative. Forty-three percent see Trump as too conservative, another 43% see him as about right, and 9% say he is too liberal.
• On the question of a second presidential debate, most (57%) think Harris and Trump should agree to have an additional televised debate, while 41% feel they should not. 

3. Most Americans support economic policies from Harris' and Trump’s campaigns. However, lowering the corporate income tax rate is the one economic policy the majority of Americans oppose.

• Despite Harris’ trust deficit around the economy, most Americans support economic policies put out by her campaign, like providing a $6,000 tax credit to middle-class and low-income families with newborn children (71%), limiting the amount of profit that food companies can make on groceries (65%), and providing up to $25,000 grants to first-time home buyers (61%).
• Economic policies released by Trump’s campaign are also popular, such as eliminating taxes on social security benefits (85% support) and raising import taxes on goods imported from other countries (57% support). Other policies, like reducing corporate income taxes, are less popular; forty-two percent of Americans support this policy and 56% oppose it. 
• A majority of Americans (56%) support an effort by the federal government that would deport undocumented immigrants and send them back to their home countries, a policy Trump’s campaign supports. Forty-three percent of Americans oppose this policy.
• On abortion, most Americans (63%) oppose the decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to eliminate the constitutional right to have an abortion, a stance Harris has taken. Most (56%) also would support the federal government restoring abortion access as it was before the Supreme Court ruling, rather than having each state make its own laws on abortion (41%).

About the Study

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted October 4 to 8, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. Invitations were sent to 4,550 panelists, resulting in 2,631 completed interviews. In quality control, 51 respondents were removed for skipping half or more of the questions or completing the survey in the fastest 1 percent times. For more precise analysis, the survey includes oversamples of N=125 Black people, N=153 Hispanic people and N=147 people age 18-29, with these groups scaled to their correct proportion of the population in weighting.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. Two email reminders were sent to hard-to-reach respondents. Hard-to-reach is defined as 18-29 years old or non-Whites, less than high school or did not vote in the 2020 presidential election.  The remainder of the sample received one reminder email.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region by metropolitan status, household income, language dominance, 2020 presidential vote choice, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2024 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Language dominance benchmarks are from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS). The 2020 presidential vote choice benchmarks came from the federal elections 2020 election results for the U.S. President while the Party Identification came from the 2024 National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS). The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (No high school diploma or GED, High school graduate (high school diploma or the equivalent GED), Some college or Associate’s degree, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree or above)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) by Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Language Dominance (English dominant, Bilingual, Spanish dominant, non-Hispanic)
• 2020 Presidential Vote Choice (Biden, Trump, Another candidate, Not asked)
• Party Identification (Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Not lean, Lean Democrat, Democrat).

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.13. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

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Source: Ipsos