Timber (Litter and Understory) Brush (2 feet) Medium Logging Slash

Red fir fuel type with montane shrub and brush understory interspersed with pockets of non-burnable fuels in granite rock outcrops. Fir trees are large diameter, over 100 ft. tall, and suffer from insect and disease mortality, leading to a significant snag component with large amounts of heavy dead and down coarse woody debris. Most active fire behavior has come from the dense, closed canopy red fir stands, where torching and isolated crown fire pockets have also contributed to spotting. Fuels in 2017 fire footprints have less closed canopy but contain significant dead and down with standing snags, increasing spotting potential. Surface spread rates are lower in the Empire Fire (2017) Footprint, but spotting continues to drive spread. Montane shrubs and brush in the understory are generally available to burn but are not at critical fuel moisture levels. Heavy dead and down fuels are dry, with fuel moisture in 1,000 hr. fuel around 12%.

Minimal, Spotting, Creeping, Smoldering

Smoldering and creeping continue within heavy interior fuels and unburned islands. This leads to continued visible smoke. Increased humidity levels with associated lower temperatures continue to reduce fire behavior. No fire spread beyond the current perimeter was observed. The risk of spot fires occurring beyond the current perimeter has reduced significantly, and is noted due to being the primary driver of fire spread.

Continue mop-up operations as necessary in all Branches and Divisions. Employ rotary-wing aviation assets to check fire from spreading outside of control lines. Backhaul supplies via aircraft and ground personnel on portions of controlled fireline. Ensuring personnel are prepared for the potential change in forecasted weather.

12 hours: Overnight heavy interior fuels will continue to smolder. Significantly cooler overnight temperatures and increased overnight humidity recovery values, with potential of precipitation, negate any potential for fire growth beyond the current perimeter.

24 hours: Precipitation is anticipated to occur over the fire area. This will dimmish fire behavior almost completely. Large heavy interior fuels may continue to smolder. Spread is not likely due of fuels exterior to the fire perimeter being at their saturation point.

48 hours: Precipitation is anticipated to occur over the fire area. This will dimmish fire behavior almost completely. Large heavy interior fuels may continue to smolder. Spread is not likely due of fuels exterior to the fire perimeter being at their saturation point.

72 hours: Low pressure system and associated precipitation will begin to depart the fire area. This will lead to a return to warmer and drier conditions. Fuels will begin to dry out and increase their receptiveness. Further fire behavior and spread will be dependent on the totality of the rain event in days prior.

Anticipated after 72 hours: Minimal fire activity anticipated. The largest of size-class fuels may continue to hold heat and smolder, with isolated and well interior smoke visible at times. Further fire behavior and spread will be dependent on the totality of the rain event in days prior.

Acreage revised due to more accurate mapping.

Observed: Partly cloudy and cooler conditions are occurring over and near the fire area today. High temperatures are down about 10 degrees over yesterday, near 60, and relative humidity is up about 10%, about 35%. Southerly general winds have been breezy at times, a bit higher than yesterdays, with gusts 15-20 mph. Southerly gusts are likely to peak at 25-30 mph later this afternoon.

12-Hour Overnight: Partly cloudy and colder temperatures are expected tonight, dipping into the upper 20s in wind sheltered cold spots, and in the 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. Winds will be generally SE 5-10 mph with gusts 10-15 mph with a weak inversion likely over the fire area. Relative humidity recoveries are likely to be 60-80%. 

24-72 Hour Forecast: Clouds will increase Sunday with partly cloudy conditions in the morning increasing to mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Rain showers are likely Sunday afternoon to evening, with rain and snow showers likely Sunday night thru Monday night. Southerly winds are likely to be a bit stronger Sunday, 10-20 mph with gusts 20-35 mph. Winds will be lighter Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will be mostly in the 20s and 30s with highs in the lower 40s, though perhaps warming to near 50 Wednesday afternoon. 

Extended (After 72 Hours): Dry conditions and mostly clear skies will return for the remainder of the week into the weekend with chilly overnight lows mostly in the 25 to 35 degree range and highs 55-65 degrees.