Includes Fresno, Merced, Madera and Mariposa Counties and Yosemite National Park
May 4, 2023 - National Weather Service officials report a few strong thunderstorms are possible in Central California today from 11:00 A.M. until 11:00 P.M. this evening.
Small hail and wind gusts near 45 miles per hour are a couple of hazards associated with strong thunderstorms.
In addition to dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, any thunderstorm can produce intense rainfall rates, leading to localized flooding.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
205 AM PDT Thu May 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will move slowly inland across
central California, keeping a chance of precipitation over the
region through the end of the week. Temperatures will remain
well below normal through Saturday with a warming trend taking
place on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...An upper level low pressure system centered off the
central CA coast is moving slowly eastward and is progged to move
inland over our area today. KHNX is showing some showers moving
northward ahead of the low over the San Joaquin Valley and West
Side Hills. As the low moves inland across central CA today, it
will provide for enough instability for showers across much of
our area through this afternoon with snow levels between 5000 and
6000 feet. Precipitation is expected to be generally light with
most of area picking up between one to three tenths of an inch of
precipitation.
The low is progged to shift into the Great Basin tonight and
Friday which keep unsettled conditions over our area with
temperatures remaining unseasonably cool and a slight chance of
showers over the Sierra Nevada.
The operational WRF is indicating another upper low moving into
NORCAL on Saturday, but ensemble members are showing widespread
disagreement with regards to the timing and placement of this
system. The NBM is indicating that the deeper moisture and
stronger dynamics with this system will remain to the north of our
area. Temperatures are progged to remain well below seasonal
averages through Saturday then a slow warming trend will take
place on Sunday and Monday.
Ensemble means are showing a pattern change taking place later on
next week with an upper ridge strengthening over the western
CONUS next Wednesday and Thursday suggesting temperatures rising
to more seasonable levels.
&&
.AVIATION...In the Sierra Nevada, widespread MVFR with areas of
mountain obscuring IFR in low clouds and showers. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for the
next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
Source: NWS
