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california drought monitor for december 27 2016

California and National Drought Summary for December 27, 2016

Summary

December 29, 2016 - Numerous storms brought changeable weather to many parts of the country, including significant precipitation in parts of the West, Northeast, and mid-South. Late in the drought-monitoring period, a particularly powerful winter storm produced heavy precipitation from California into the Southwest—and later resulted in a holiday blizzard across the north-central U.S. Meanwhile, the interior Southeast continued to experience varying degrees of drought relief, although streaks of significant rain notably bypassed core drought areas in northern and central Alabama and northern Georgia. In addition, Florida’s peninsula received little rain, exacerbating the effects of short-term dryness.

Northeast

Most of the region received some precipitation, albeit light. However, heavy precipitation occurred east of Lake Ontario and in parts of central and eastern Maine, resulting in some reductions in coverage of dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2).

Southeast

A stripe of very heavy rain extended northeastward from the northeastern corner of Texas, effectively cutting the Southern drought into two pieces. Rainfall (locally 4 to 6 inches or more) was heavy enough to warrant a narrow strip of two-category drought reductions in the areas where the heaviest rain occurred. On either side of the heavy rain band, little rain fell. As a result, there was further expansion of dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 and D2) into northwestern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Farther east, there were minimal changes to the drought depiction across the lower Southeast, following some substantial alterations in recent weeks.

Florida’s peninsula remained dry—even by dry-season standards—with statewide topsoil moisture rated 48% very short to short by USDA on December 25, compared to the 5-year average of 31%. In addition, Florida’s pastures were rated 31% very poor to poor, while heavy irrigation continued in the citrus belt.

Midwest

Most of the Midwest received some precipitation, resulting in minor trimming of existing dryness (D0). Heavier rain was confined to areas near the Ohio River and points south. Meanwhile in the upper Midwest, a growing number of weather stations have broken annual precipitation records. Through December 27, for example, year-to-date precipitation reached 40.32 inches in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, and 44.76 inches in La Crosse, Wisconsin. Previous (and long-standing) records had been 40.15 inches in 1911 and 44.74 inches in 1881, respectively.

The Plains

Mild weather returned in the wake of the mid-December Arctic outbreak. A few showers across the central and southern Plains were insufficient to prevent further deterioration in the drought depiction—especially across central and eastern Oklahoma and neighboring areas. In addition, dryness (D0) expanded into much of eastern Kansas, where negligible precipitation has fallen in the last 2 months. From November 1 – December 27, precipitation in Wichita, Kansas, totaled just 0.92 inch (37% of normal).

Farther north, a major winter storm struck the northern Plains on December 25-26. Blizzard conditions engulfed the Dakotas and environs, disrupting holiday travel. From a drought perspective, however, the storm brought highly beneficial moisture to lingering areas of dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 and D2) across the northern Plains, resulting in some improvements in the drought depiction.

The West

A pair of storms delivered widespread precipitation (rain and snow) to much of the western U.S., starting around December 22. Some of the most impressive precipitation fell across southern California and the Desert Southwest, where recent improvements have to be viewed through the lens of a multi-year drought that features lingering low reservoir levels; tree mortality; groundwater shortages; and other long-term indicators. Nearly all of the remaining Western drought areas carry the “L” designation, indicative of long-term impacts.

Despite heavy autumn and/or early-winter precipitation nearly region-wide, this season’s accumulated snowpack remains below average in many California and Southwestern basins, owing to several “warm” storms that have produced more rain than snow. For example, California’s Department of Water Resources noted that the average water content of the Sierra Nevada snowpack stood at 6 inches, about 70% of the late-December average but less than one-quarter of the typical April 1 seasonal peak. Still, Western precipitation has been heavy enough in nearly all areas to warrant some improvement in recent weeks, and further improvement could be dictated if strong storms continue to occur and if USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service issues an optimistic Western water-supply outlook in early January.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

There was no change to the depiction of abnormal dryness (D0) across the southeastern mainland of Alaska. Much of Alaska was very cold during the first half of December, followed by a warming trend and a general increase in precipitation. Farther south, occasional showers occurred in Hawaii’s windward locations, but remaining areas of dryness and drought received little, if any, rain. As a result, Hawaii’s drought depiction was also unchanged. Elsewhere, Puerto Rico remained free of dryness and drought. San Juan, Puerto Rico, has received near-normal December rainfall, following an exceedingly wet November when precipitation totaled 17.65 inches (278% of normal).

Looking Ahead

On December 29-30, a significant snow storm will unfold across the Northeast, with wind and snow extending southward through the Appalachians. The heaviest snow should fall in the Adirondacks and much of New England. Late in the week, heavy rain can be expected in parts of the Southeast, with freezing rain possible in the Mid-Atlantic States. Five-day precipitation totals could reach 1 to 3 inches or more in New England and parts of the Southeast. Meanwhile, disorganized Western storminess could result in local totals in excess of an inch, especially in the Pacific Northwest. Generally dry weather will prevail during the next 5 days across the northern and central Plains and the western Corn Belt.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for January 3 – 7, 2017, calls for the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across the Alaskan mainland and along the Atlantic Seaboard, while colder-than-normal conditions can be expected across the remainder of the country. Meanwhile, odds will be tilted toward wetter-than-normal weather across most of the U.S., but below-normal precipitation should occur in much of Texas, northern California, and the Northwest.

Author(s):
Brad Rippey, U.S. Department of Agriculture

Dryness Categories

D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.

Drought Intensity Categories

D1 ... Moderate Drought

D2 ... Severe Drought

D3 ... Extreme Drought

D4 ... Exceptional Drought

Drought or Dryness Types

S ... Short-Term, typically <6 months (e.g. agricultural, grasslands)

L ... Long-Term, typically >6 months (e.g. hydrology, ecology)
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center