Includes the Sierra Nevada and the foothills of Fresno, Madera, Mariposa, and Tuolumne Counties
June 25, 2024 - National Weather Service Hanford Office offficials say beware of lightning strikes, especially dry lightning with thunderstorms that produce less than a tenth of an inch of rain.
Winds gusting and erratic to 40 mph.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
139 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024
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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 11 AM this morning
due to warm overnight low temperatures.
2. Above average temperatures will continue this week, with 100
degree heat persistent for many locations through Wednesday.
3. There is a 10 to 30 percent probability for thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon along the Sierra Nevada crest from Yosemite
National Park to the border of Tulare and Kern Counties.
4. Winds pick up on Thursday with a 40 to 45 percent chance of
wind gusts of 40 mph or higher at the Mojave Desert Slopes.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
With the very high temperatures the past few days and the
advection of the moisture from the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Alberto, we had a few showers and thunderstorms the past
two days. These thunderstorms produced cloud-to-ground lightning
resulting in a few fires being started yesterday. These
thunderstorms produced little to none rain because of hot and
dry conditions in the lower levels and tropical moisture in the
middle and upper levels. Latest model ensembles show the ridge
stays in place keeping temperatures hot again and the moisture
is still being advected. This combination brings a 10 to 30
percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada today and
a 5 percent chance of thunderstorms in the Valley.
The heat will remain today in the San Joaquin Valley as the NBM
probabilities have a 35 to 45 percent probability of high
temperatures of at least 103 degrees today. However, the
probabilities for Merced and Madera are 15 percent or less of a
high temperature of at least 103 today.
Temperatures cool off on Wednesday as the model ensembles are
showing the ridge weakening and moving east. Winds pick up on
Thursday with a trough sliding across the Pacific Northwest.
Latest probabilities show a 40 to 45 percent probability of wind
gusts of 40 mph over the Mojave Desert Slopes on Thursday. The
wind speeds decrease on Friday and Saturday. Model ensembles
are showing a second trough sliding across the Pacific Northwest
on Sunday bringing stronger gusts again to the Mojave Desert
Slopes. Temperatures will remain persistent through the weekend
with a less than 15 percent probability of triple digits for the
entire weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions possible around scattered showers along the
crest and surrounding foothills of the Sierra Nevada from 18Z
Tuesday through 6Z Wednesday. There is a very slight chance of
thunderstorms in the San Joaquin Valley between 18Z Tuesday and
3Z Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the
central California interior for the next 24 hours.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
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.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ300>317-319-
321-332.
Source: NWS
