September 27, 2019 - Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has pulled into the lead among voters likely to participate in California’s Democratic primary, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll.

Warren is the first choice for 29% of likely voters, up 11 percentage points since the last Berkeley IGS Poll in June. She leads former vice president Joe Biden, who was the favorite of 20% of those polled and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who has support from 19% of likely voters. 

The poll also showed that California Senator Kamala Harris is struggling to attract support from her home-state voters. Harris, who was elected to the Senate in 2016, was the first choice of just 8% of likely voters, down from 13% in June. 

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, said the results showed that Warren seemed to be attracting voters that used to support Harris, Biden or Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana. 

“It is noteworthy that Warren’s growing base of support has come from the ranks of those formerly supporting Harris, Buttigeg and Biden,” he said. “Thus far, Californians who are backing Sanders have been sticking with their man.”

The poll also asked voters who they would consider as second-choice candidates. Warren is the first or second choice for 54% of those polled, while Biden and Sanders are tied at 33%. Harris is the first or second choice for 21% of likely voters. 

The poll of 4,527 registered voters was conducted online in English and Spanish from Sept. 13 to Sept. 18. Roughly 2,200 voters were identified as likely to participate in California’s March 3, 2020 primary. The margin of error was 3 percentage points.

September 27, 2019 - Almost two-thirds of registered California Republicans under the age of 40 think it would be a “good thing” if someone challenged President Donald Trump in the Republican primary, according to a new poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. 

The Berkeley IGS Poll, conducted online in English and Spanish from Sept. 13 to 18, asked 4,527 registered California voters for their thoughts on Trump’s presidency. Roughly 67% of the state’s likely Republican, Democrat and independent voters said they were not inclined to vote for Trump in the general election and 69% said they disapproved of the job Trump is doing in office.

The poll also found that 72% of likely voters thought the country is on the “wrong track,” including 93% of Democrats, 33% of Republicans and 75% of voters who do not have a preference for either party. 

Roughly 60% of California’s likely Republican voters said they thought it would be a “bad thing” for another Republican to challenge Trump in the primary. 

“However, a significant minority of likely Republican primary voters, 40%, feel an intra-party challenger would be a good thing,” said Mark DiCamillo, head of the Berkeley IGS Poll. “Most likely to feel this way are Republican voters under 40, 62% of whom think it would be a good thing for other GOP candidates to square off against Trump in the primaries.”

Republicans who identified as “very conservative,” “evangelical Christian” or “age 65 or older” were the most likely to view a primary challenge to Trump as a “bad thing.”

The poll, the second Berkeley IGS Poll released this week, had an overall margin of error of 2 percentage points.