February 3, 2015 - The previously developing El Nino has fallen apart rapidly in the past several weeks and is no longer expected to be a factor this spring. However we do still expect to see some large scale weather patterns similar in some El Nino’s this spring, namely Above Normal Temperatures (Fig 1) and wetter than normal conditions across Southern CA (Fig 2).
Drought conditions remain Extreme to Exceptional across most of Nrn CA (Fig 3) and these drought conditions are expected to persist thru April (Fig 4). This upper air pattern for much of this spring could resemble a broad ridge of high pressure across Nrn CA into the Pacific NW, with a weak southern storm track across Srn CA (Fig 5).
Mountain snowpack is well below normal and with continued drought conditions we may have to begin giving some consideration to Above Normal Fire Potential this coming fire season. However, occasional precipitation and typical spring green-up should keep fire potential normal from March to May 2015 (see maps above).
Source: U.S. Forest Service
