Department of Labor Reports The Initial Unemployment Claims For The Week Ending August 29, 2020 At 881,000

Department of Labor Reports The Initial Unemployment Claims For The Week Ending August 29, 2020 At 881,000 – A Change in Methodology is Applied

Details: Last Updated: Thursday, 03 September 2020 05:53; Published: Thursday, 03 September 2020 05:53

REVISION TO SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS
Beginning with the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims News Release issued Thursday, September 3, 2020, the methodology used to seasonally adjust the national initial claims and continued claims reflects additive factors as opposed to multiplicative factors. Seasonal adjustment factors can be either multiplicative or additive. A multiplicative seasonal effect is assumed to be proportional to the level of the series. A sudden large increase in the level of the series will be accompanied by a proportionally large seasonal effect. In contrast, an additive seasonal effect is assumed to be unaffected by the level of the series. In times of relative economic stability, the multiplicative option is generally preferred over the additive option. However, in the presence of a large level shift in a time series, multiplicative seasonal adjustment factors can result in systematic over- or under-adjustment of the series; in such cases, additive seasonal adjustment factors are preferred since they tend to more accurately track seasonal fluctuations in the series and have smaller revisions. Prior to September 2020, the seasonally adjusted unemployment insurance claims series used multiplicative seasonal adjustment factors. Starting in September Bureau of Labor Statistics staff, who provide the seasonal adjustment factors, specified these series as additive. In accordance with the usual practice, the seasonal adjustment models and factors will be reviewed at the beginning of each calendar year, when prior years of seasonally adjusted estimates will be subject to revision

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

September 3, 2020 - In the week ending August 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 881,000, a decrease of 130,000 from the previous week's revised level. The

previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 1,006,000 to 1,011,000. The 4-week moving average was 991,750, a decrease of 77,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,250 from 1,068,000 to 1,069,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 9.1 percent for the week ending August 22, a decrease of 0.8 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 22 was 13,254,000, a decrease of 1,238,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 43,000 from 14,535,000 to 14,492,000. The 4-week moving average was 14,496,250, a decrease of 709,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 10,500 from 15,215,750 to 15,205,250.

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Source: DOL

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