Includes Mariposa, Oakhurst, and Yosemite National Park
March 28, 2022 - The National Weather Service Hanford Office reports a few thunderstorms are possible in much of central California this afternoon into the early evening.
Small hail and wind gusts near 40 mph may accompany thunderstorms.
In addition to dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, any thunderstorm can produce intense rainfall rates, leading to localized flooding.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 213 AM PDT Mon Mar 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching low pressure system will continue to move further inland and bring rain and mountain snow along with a slight chance for thunderstorms today. Precipitation will continue until Tuesday morning before the storm system moves east of the area. High pressure will rebuild beginning later Tuesday with a warming and drying trend through the week. && .DISCUSSION... The storm will continue to progress inland during tonight and into the daylight hours today. Based on latest radar imagery, the outer band of showers are currently over western portions of the San Joaquin Valley, including over Merced and western Fresno Counties. This band, and the main band currently along the coast, will continue to progress eastward tonight and into the daylight hours later this morning. Precipitation can be expected throughout interior Central California for much of today, as well as higher elevation snow. There also remains a slight chance of thunderstorms with small hail possible for mainly this afternoon, and the possibility exists at any location in our forecast area. There will be sufficient ingredients for potential development of thunderstorms, including cold air aloft, moisture, and dynamics. In addition, cooler than normal temperatures are on tap for today, as highs struggle to top the mid-60`s at the warmest spots. Storm activity will likely taper off during this evening, though chances remain until at least Tuesday morning, including over the mountain areas. The storm generally remains on track in terms of precipitation amounts through Tuesday morning, though the latest blended guidance has shown some downward trend in probabilities for the forecast amounts. Locations in the Sierra Nevada will likely observe 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain at elevations mainly below 5,500 feet and several inches to over a foot of snow above this level, with some localized amounts around 15 to 18 inches possible. For the San Joaquin Valley, forecast amounts are around 0.50 to 0.75 inch, though the latest probability for 0.50 inch of precipitation is at around 30 to 50 percent depending on location while the best chances for this amount are over Kern County. There is around a 30 to 40 percent chance of 0.25 inch of rainfall for the Kern County desert. Thus, it is more likely these areas could observe lower amounts than forecast. However, if a location observes a thunderstorm, it is conceivable that precipitation amounts could be a bit heavier. Most of the shower activity will likely taper off by this evening. Tuesday is expected to be warmer with near seasonal temperatures, as the storm moves into the Desert Southwest. However, some showers may continue over the mountains with gradual clearing through the afternoon. After this storm exits, it is likely we won`t observe additional precipitation for the remainder of March. A return to seasonal temperatures and mostly clear skies is in store for Wednesday and Thursday. We do not expect a major warming trend through the remainder of the week, although daytime high temperatures could rise back to around 10 degrees above seasonal averages by Saturday. There is the potential for another low pressure system to brush the area late on Sunday or next Monday with another cooling trend and possibly some showers over the mountains. However, any amounts could be very light. Overall, a typical springtime pattern will prevail. && .AVIATION... Incoming precipitation will bring areas of MVFR ceilings and IFR conditions in the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains due to mountain obscurations through the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None.Source: NWS
