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WeatherStory51

Mariposa projected high temperature for Wednesday: 82 degrees, Thursday: 83 degrees

Oakhurst projected high temperature for Wednesday: 83 degrees, Thursday: 84 degrees

Yosemite Valley projected high temperature for Wednesday: 78 degrees, Thursday: 78 degrees

May 1, 2022 - The National Weather Service Hanford Office reports high temperatures throughout Central California Wednesday afternoon will be around ten degrees warmer than Tuesday afternoon.

By Thursday afternoon, maximum temperatures across Central California will be twelve to fourteen degrees above normal for this time of year.
  Area Forecast Discussion 
  National Weather Service Hanford CA 
  325 AM PDT Sun May 1 2022 
   
   
  .SYNOPSIS... 
  Windy conditions along the Mojave Desert Slopes until Sunday 
  Night. A little cooler today as a dry trough enters the Great  
  Basin. Much warmer by the middle of next week with dry weather  
  expected to continue. 
   
  && 
   
  .DISCUSSION... 
  Disturbance currently crossing the region is producing strong  
  westerly winds over portions of Kern County. While the bulk of the 
  energy from the disturbances passage is over the Great Basin  
  (east of the Central California Interior), a portion of that  
  energy is skirting the district. Enough jet-stream energy is  
  currently moving across the district to generate wind gusts up to  
  50 mph. The strong winds are also getting support from the  
  surface. The pressure gradient from KSFO to KLAS was currently at  
  12mb and is tight enough to provide for isolated wind gusts  
  reaching advisory criteria. Therefore, until the disturbance exits 
  the region tonight, will expect strong winds over the eastern  
  portions of the Kern County Mountains. Otherwise, temperatures  
  will see a slight up and down until mid-week when the area heats- 
  up under a much strong ridge pattern. 
   
  Satellite and upper air analysis is showing the disturbance over  
  Southeastern Oregon and moving southeast. Confidence in the  
  trajectory of the upper disturbance is high as Hi-Res ensemble  
  mean upper-air analysis has it moving through the Great Basin  
  today. Therefore, winds will be the biggest impacts as the region  
  remains dry and temperatures return to near normal conditions.  
  Ensemble mean and member consensus is to have the desert winds  
  start to drop off after 5 PM PDT. This will coincide with the  
  departure of the disturbances energy this evening as the advisory  
  is expected to expire around 11 PM PDT. 
   
  Once the disturbance exits the region, weak ridge will move  
  through the region ahead of another disturbance following a  
  similar path. While uncertainty is a bit higher on the possible  
  trajectory of the second disturbance, will lean toward a Great  
  Basin path. This will then allow for another strong wind event.  
  Monday will see slight warming of temperatures with winds  
  beginning to feel the effects of the next disturbance. Between  
  Monday and Tuesday, the ridge exits and another trough moves  
  through the region. Consensus among the ensemble members is high  
  that similar winds will be observed on Monday and Tuesday to those 
  currently occurring. Yet, the district will remain dry during the 
  next disturbance along with minor temperature changes.  
   
  The second disturbance is projected to exit the region later on 
  Tuesday. At which time, winds will drop off and cooler conditions 
  are felt. Ensemble cluster analysis shows a different story by 
  mid-week as a strong signal points to a well defined ridge 
  pattern. With only minor differences on possible ridge solutions, 
  will expected good warming to occur as valley temperature reach 
  into the 90 degree mark. While probability of exceedance is only 
  around 50 percent of reaching the 90 degree mark on Wednesday, 
  that percentage grows to just over 70 percent on Thursday. 
  Therefore, the heat is on by mid-week before yet another 
  disturbance provides another wave of cooling.  
   
  && 
   
  .AVIATION... 
  Surface winds gusting to 45 knots across the Mojave Desert Slopes 
  in eastern Kern County until 06Z Monday. Otherwise, VFR  
  conditions will prevail throughout Central California for at least 
  the next 24 hours.  
   
  && 
   
  .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... 
  None. 
Source; NWS