Mariposa projected high temperature for Thursday: 95 degrees, Friday: 96 degrees, Saturday: 99 degrees
Oakhurst projected high temperature for Thursday: 98 degrees, Friday: 99 degrees, Saturday: 101 degrees
Yosemite Valley projected high temperature for Thursday: 100 degrees, Friday: 101 degrees, Saturday: 102 degrees
July 14, 2022 - The National Weather Service Hanford Office reports widespread triple digit heat is expected in the San Joaquin Valley each day from this afternoon through Saturday afternoon.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
310 AM PDT Thu Jul 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy smoke from the Washburn Fire will move northward over
Yosemite Valley both this afternoon and Friday afternoon due to
southerly transport winds. Triple digit heat will continue across
the valley as high pressure over the Four Corners remains in place
through early next week. Additionally, rounds of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over the crests of the Sierra
Nevada each afternoon from Today through Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Another hot day across the Central California Interior with a
modification to the overall weather pattern. While the ridge
pattern (four corners high) will keep the heat in place across the
West, the flow aloft is becoming more southeasterly. The
southeasterly component is even being picked up at the jet-level
to increase the confidence that Monsoonal-type moisture will surge
north toward the area. 24 hour change in dew-point temperatures
is indicating a rise in values. While the 60 degree isodrosotherm
line is still down toward Imperial County, higher dew point will
continue to surge northwestward as mountain convection will become
a possibility this afternoon. With minor change in the flow aloft
will shift of the moisture, high Sierra convection may continue
for several days.
High-Resolution ensemble analysis is showing higher confidence in
maintaining the triple digit temperatures for the next several
days. Ensemble 2-meter temperature values showing a warming trend
that continues beyond day two. Therefore, while some uncertainty
exist on the potential for 105 and above this afternoon, more
ensemble members place surface temperature closer to the 105
degree value by Friday. Yet, the surge in humidity has less
uncertainty within the next 24 to 48 hours. While observational
data is showing the surge northward already occurring, ensemble do
show precip-water values above one-half inch reach Kern County
this afternoon. Probability of placing greater then 0.5 inches of
water over region, as far north as Fresno County, does reach just
over 70 percent this afternoon. By the same token, ensemble mean
value CAPE of near 1000 J/kg is being placed over the Sierra
Nevada from Fresno County southward. The values drop-off going
north of Fresno County. Therefore, while the areas near Yosemite
will have to be monitored for possible convection, the more
favored areas of the Sierra Crest across Fresno and Tulare
Counties may see the most activity.
Looking beyond the short-term, ensemble Cluster Analysis show very
minor temperature differences across California through at least
the weekend. With a strong ridge in place, Cluster Analysis show
no signal toward any possible change. Therefore, the heat and
afternoon convection will be expected through Sunday and Monday.
Uncertainty does grow in the Tuesday forecast, but, the current
solution is for continued heat and afternoon mountain convection.
Ensemble mean upper air weather pattern solution currently has a
disturbance attempting to cross the Pacific Northwest and Canada
near the mid-week period which may affect area temperatures.
Uncertainty continues to grow on Wednesday as Cluster Analysis
signals toward a shift in the ridge pattern. While the signal is
not very strong, indications is that some cooling may be observed
as the flow aloft changes to a more westerly direction.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR or lower visibilities are likely in the eastern portion of
Mariposa County due to heavy smoke and haze from the Washburn
Fire. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail through at least the
next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday July 14 2022...Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno, Kern and Tulare Counties, and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.
Source: NWS
