Includes Fresno, Madera and Mariposa Counties including Oakhurst and Yosemite
August 11, 2023 - National Weather Service Hanford Office officials report an area of low pressure moving into our area will produce thunderstorms in the high Sierra today.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
233 AM PDT Fri Aug 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
An influx of moisture and instability from the remnants of
Tropical Storm Eugene will create a 20% chance of thunderstorms
over the Sierra Nevada crest this morning through the evening.
Thunderstorms chances will continue through Monday, with chances
in the afternoon each day. High temperatures will remain below
average today, but a warming trend will have highs in the valley
in the low to mid 100's by Tuesday. Temperatures will return to
around normal by next Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The remnants of Tropic Storm Eugene is currently producing
showers in the San Joaquin Valley as the vorticity center rotates
over the Pacific Coast. This influx of moisture and instability
will create a 20% chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada
crest this morning through the evening. This moisture will stick
around and a few thunderstorms are likely every afternoon through
Monday. Ensemble models indicate the low pressure system will move
out of our area by Tuesday.
High temperatures will start our below average today, with temps
in the low 90's. A warming trend will then cause temperatures to
reach the low to mid 100's by Tuesday, which will be a moderate
heat risk for the population. Afternoon highs will start to cool
off, and by Friday, will be back in the high 90's with a few
locations at 100 degrees. This trend is likely to continue into
next Sunday, as models indicate a weak upper level trough will
build into our area.
Here's the 4.1 NBM probabilities for a high temperature of 104
degrees on Tuesday, the 15th, for select locations in the valley:
Fresno: 71%
Bakersfield: 61%
Lemoore: 61%
Hanford: 46%
Merced: 41%
Reedley: 36%
Visalia: 36%
Delano: 31%
Madera: 31%
Porterville: 31%
&&
.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local mountain obscuring IFR in
showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada are possible
through the evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
across the Central CA interior for at least the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED: 08/10/2023 14:22
EXPIRES: 08/11/2023 23:59
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
Source: NWS