September 9, 2023 - National Weather Service Hanford Office officials report a slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible across the Higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada on Saturday afternoon and early evening.
Frequent lightning, small hail, strong erratic winds and possible brief heavy rain may result from the afternoon thunderstorm activity.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
220 AM PDT Sat Sep 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A chance for showers and thunderstorms across Central California
today and across the Sierra Nevada on Sunday. High temperatures
will start slightly above normal for the time of year before
cooling off by early next week, with the valley expected to have
highs in the high 80's on around Friday. Dry conditions will move
into the area on Monday and linger for a majority of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As Hurricane Jova continues to drift northward, moisture from the
outer bands have begun influencing the weather over the region.
Enough moisture has been pulled into the westerlies as light
showers stream into Central California. So far, a few
thunderstorms with light rain have managed to move across the
southern portions of the Central California Interior early this
morning. As Hurricane Jova continues to move in a northwesterly
direction, additional moisture will to surge into the region as
shower and thunderstorm activity continue throughout the day. Will
see minimal change in the next 24 hours as a ridge pattern
dominates the area through mid-week.
Ensemble upper-air analysis show Hurricane Jova slowly drifting
west by northwest with some moisture feeding into the westerlies
and into California. Even with the moisture pushing into the
region, ensemble surface temperature analysis show minimal
effects. NBM probability of exceedance of reaching 95 degrees goes
above the 70 percent range for this Saturday afternoon.
Therefore, will feel warm and humid through the weekend as
percentage of reaching into the 90s remain at and above 60
percent. Instability and other convective parameters favor the
southern portion of the Central California Interior along with the
Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi range. By Sunday, ensemble
instability analysis limits the better potential of convection to
the mountainous regions. Ensemble upper-air analysis shows the
beginning of the turn in the steering current to a more westerly
direction. At that point, we lose the moisture and instability tap
as the region begins to dry out. In addition, the change in the
flow from southwesterly to a more northwesterly direction will
allow for a cool down. By Tuesday, NBM probability of exceedance
of reaching 95 degrees drops to below 30 percent across the San
Joaquin Valley.
Longer range ensemble Cluster Analysis shows a strong signal
toward the building of a ridge pattern over CONUS. Cluster
Analysis shows minimal error in the timing of the ridge
development but does show some deviation in the amplitude of the
ridge. Therefore, some variability exist on the strength of the
ridge pattern and how hot temperatures can become during the week
after the cool down. At the moment, will keep the longer range
period (outside of the desert) below triple digit readings.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior
through the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
Source: NWS
