September 13, 2023 - Here at the Almanac, we are long-term planners and prognosticators! Winter arrives this year on December 21, 2023. On the winter solstice, those of us who live in the Northern Hemisphere are tilted as far away from our Sun as possible. Winter brings cooler weather, the joy of winter sports, curling by the fire, and the holiday spirit. It also brings shoveling, snowblowing, dealing with bad roads, and sometimes unbearable temperatures. What will winter bring this year??

A WINTER WONDERLAND!

The 2024 Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts snow, seasonable cold, and all of winter’s delights! This winter’s forecast is sure to excite snow bunnies and sweater lovers alike, promising a whole lot of cold and snow across North America! 

• Snowfall will be above normal across most snow-prone areas (except for the Pacific Northwest). Get prepared for oodles of fluffy white throughout the season! Keep a shovel at the ready early, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, where snow will arrive beginning in November with storms, showers, and flurries continuing through the start of spring.
  
  
• Along with above-normal snow, we’ll see normal to colder-than-normal temperatures in areas that typically receive snow. Expect just the right amount of chill in the air for an afternoon of adventurous snow sports or enjoying a big ol’ mug of hot cocoa by a crackling fire. Only snowy New England and the Atlantic Corridor will enjoy winter temperatures milder than what’s typical for their regions.

REFRESHING RELIEF

Wetter-than-usual weather is coming to the southern portions of the Deep South, Texas, and California, with potentially drought-quenching rain. As the winter map shows, much of the U.S. coastline, from New England down to Florida across the Gulf Coast to the Pacific Southwest, will experience mild to cool temperatures.

SWEATER WEATHER

This is the theme for the coastline of the Pacific Northwest, which will be relatively dry and cold throughout the season. While storm clouds will typically deliver rain, snow is possible for late December and mid-January. 

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which has been issuing its 80 percent–accurate forecasts since 1792, can be found anywhere books and magazines are sold.

What Influences This Winter Forecast

We are approaching the middle of Solar Cycle 25, which is increasing in intensity and already as strong as Solar Cycle 24, which possibly had the lowest solar activity in about 200 years. Such low activity has historically meant cooler-than-average temperatures across Earth, but this connection has become weaker since the last century. 

The expected El Niño has emerged and should gradually strengthen into the winter. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Typically, El Niño conditions result in wetter-than-average conditions from southern California to along the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest. We also expect a warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Also important are the equatorial stratospheric winds involved in the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, or QBO. 

Under certain combinations of meteorological conditions, the polar vortex can be displaced from the North Pole, which could open the door for cold blasts to hit southern Canada and the central and eastern United States during this upcoming winter.
Source: Old Farmer’s Almanac