November 8, 2023 - National Weather Service Hanford Office officials reposted the 6-10 Day Precipitation Probability Outlook, issued earlier today by the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.
This outlook depicts a 60 to 70 percent probability of above normal precipitation for Central California from Monday, November 13th, 2023 through Friday, November 17th, 2023.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1113 AM PST Wed Nov 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool, dry conditions are forecast over Central California through
the weekend as a modest ridge pattern of high pressure builds
overhead. A wet and active weather pattern is forecast to emerge
next week as a storm system approaches Central California.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Cool and dry days are forecast to continue through the next few
days as a modest ridge of high pressure aloft builds. Little to no
fog formation occurred today due to mixing, but isolated fog
potential exists as the airmass overhead grows more stagnant the
next few mornings. Blended model guidance is also calling for the
formation of frost the next few mornings in the valley. Afternoon
highs trend upward a few degrees through the weekend as well due
to the mild ridging pattern aloft.
The weather pattern quickly changes as we head into next week.
Nearly all model guidance is showing a significant storm system
approaching the CA coastline by Monday, with the system pushing
further eastward on Tuesday. Ensemble guidance and cluster
analysis further increase confidence of this being the first
significant storm system of this year's wet season. Precipitation
is currently forecast to begin Tuesday of next week, with the bulk
of the precip forecast to occur next Wednesday and Thursday.
CPC guidance is showing a Moderate Risk -- 40% chance -- of heavy
snow and heavy rain for the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills
next week, which is an impressive forecast signal for how far out
the event still is. This guidance is consistent with appreciable
IVT (integrated water vapor transport) forecasts reaching Central
California by the 15th and 16th of November. The main uncertainty
for next week's storm appears to be the amplitude of the storm
system, which introduces some uncertainty for QPF totals.
Regardless, model guidance continues to point to there being a
significant change in the weather pattern next week, and there is
potential to see significant snow and rain impacts from next
week's event.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR with isolated IFR visibilities are conceivable in the San
Joaquin Valley due to mist late tonight into Thursday morning.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED: 11/07/2023 14:58
EXPIRES: 11/08/2023 23:59
On Wednesday November 8 2023, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Madera
Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Merced, and Tulare
Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
Source: NWS
