Possible Thunderstorms in portions of Mariposa, Madera, Fresno and Tuolumne Counties
November 16, 2023 - National Weather Service Hanford Office officials report a few strong thunderstorms are possible northwest of Fresno from 1:00 P.M. this afternoon until 6:00 P.M. this evening.
Wind gusts near 45 miles per hour and small hail are a couple of hazards associated with strong thunderstorms.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
104 AM PST Thu Nov 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible northwest of Fresno this
afternoon into this evening. Dense fog is conceivable in parts of
the San Joaquin Valley early Friday morning. Precipitation ahead
of the next storm system will overspread Central California Friday
night. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the San Joaquin
Valley and Coastal Range Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
An upper-level area of low pressure will meander around the
Eastern Pacific Ocean near latitude 35 North, longitude 130 West
today and tonight. Along the extreme eastern portion of this
cyclone aloft, a few strong thunderstorms are conceivable
northwest of Fresno this afternoon into this evening. The 06Z
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) computer model depicts a
large area of visibilities of one quarter of a mile or less in
Fresno, Madera, and Merced Counties between Highway 99 and
Interstate 5 early Friday morning. As a result, dense fog is
possible in this area from about 1 AM PST tonight until 10 AM PST
Friday. A Dense Fog Advisory may be required.
The aforementioned upper-level area of low pressure will begin to
move eastward Friday. This cyclone aloft will open up into a
trough of low pressure Friday night into Saturday as it passes
eastward over Central California. Snow levels in the Sierra Nevada
will be around 7,000 feet. One to three inches of snow is possible
from 7,000 feet to 8,000 feet Friday night and Saturday. Three to
six inches of snow is conceivable above 8,000 feet, with areas of
six to twelve inches along the Sierra Nevada crest Friday night
and Saturday. A Winter Weather Advisory may be required.
As far as rain is concerned, less than one tenth of an inch of
rain is expected in the Kern County desert Friday night and
Saturday. One tenth of an inch of rain to one quarter of an inch
of rain is anticipated in the southern portion of the San Joaquin
Valley and Kern County mountains Friday night and Saturday. One
quarter of an inch to one half of an inch or rain is expected in
the northern portion of the San Joaquin Valley Friday night and
Saturday. One half of an inch to one inch of rain is anticipated
in the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills below 7,000 feet
Friday night and Saturday.
A ridge of high pressure will build northward over the Western
United States Sunday through Wednesday. This will result in dry
weather, with a warming trend Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
will remain above seasonal values Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day
as dry weather persists. Dense fog will be threat for the San
Joaquin Valley each late night and early morning next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR visibilities due to mist are likely in parts of the San
Joaquin Valley early this morning. VFR conditions will prevail
this afternoon. IFR or lower conditions due to dense fog are
possible in parts of the San Joaquin Valley from 09Z until about
18Z Friday.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday, November 16th, 2023, fireplace/wood stove burning
status is: no burning for all in Kern County. No burning unless
registered in Fresno, Kings, Madera, and Merced Counties. Burning
discouraged in Tulare County, Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area),
and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low, medium, and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
Source: NWS
