Possible Thunderstorms in portions of Mariposa, Madera, Fresno and Tuolumne Counties
November 18, 2023 - National Weather Service Hanford Office officials report a few strong thunderstorms are possible throughout the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada crest north of Fresno County from 1:00 P.M. this afternoon until 6:00 P.M. this evening.
Wind gusts near 45 miles per hour and small hail are a couple of hazards associated with strong thunderstorms.
In addition to dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, any thunderstorm can produce intense rainfall rates, leading to localized flooding.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
415 AM PST Sat Nov 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation will continue today and this evening then gradually
diminish overnight with just a few upslope showers in Kern County
on Sunday morning. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the
San Joaquin Valley and Coastal Range this afternoon and evening.
Dry and seasonable conditions will prevail next week with a high
probability for late night and morning dense fog development in
the San Joaquin Valley.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Yesterdays' upper low has opened into a trough as it accelerates
towards the coast tonight. Radar imagery shows light showers are
north of Kern County spreading east across the San Joaquin Valley
into the Sierra Nevada with some heavier showers along the coast.
The upper trough will shift inland this morning and then quickly
move east over the Great Basin this afternoon as a kicker trough
approaches the Pacific Northwest. High resolution models indicate
shower activity will increase through the day and continue into
this evening. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms as well
with small hail and gusty winds a couple of the threats. Showers
will gradually taper off overnight but some upsloping showers are
likely along valley facing slopes in the Kern County mountains on
Sunday morning.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect in the Sierra Nevada above
8000 feet from Yosemite NP to Kings Canyon NP from 4 PM Saturday
until 4 AM Sunday. Snow amounts of 6 to 12 inches are conceivable
across some of the higher elevations around 10000 feet and above.
Probabilistic guidance gives Tuolumne Meadows a 91 percent chance
of at least 6 inches of snowfall, a 74 percent chance of at least
8 inches of snowfall and a 42 percent chance of at least 12 inches
of snowfall. Forecast rain amounts in the Sierra Nevada range from
one quarter to one inch with the higher amounts farther north near
Yosemite NP. One tenth to one quarter inch is forecast across the
San Joaquin Valley north of Kern County with up to one tenth for
the Kern County portion of the SJ Valley. One quarter to one half
an inch is forecast in the Kern County Mountains while only a few
hundredths are forecast in the desert areas.
Winds will increase in eastern Kern County this evening with some
strong gusts around 55 mph are forecast. A Wind Advisory has been
issued from 10 PM Saturday through 8 PM Sunday for Mojave Slopes
and adjacent mountains including Tehachapi. Gusty winds are also
forecast to develop in the San Joaquin Valley on Sunday, ranging
from 20 to 30 mph.
An upper ridge over the eastern Pacific will quickly build inland
behind the departing trough. Dry weather will prevail early next
week but any valley rainfall this weekend will help set the stage
for a return of late night and morning dense fog. Some guidance
suggests dense fog as early as Sunday morning but a better chance
develops on Monday and continues through Wednesday with the ridge
over the west. Model ensembles show a short wave trough taking an
inside slider path on Thanksgiving Day that could inhibit fog for
the valley and may even bring a little precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR conditions in showers and local mountain obscuring
IFR/LIFR in heavier showers through the next 24 hrs.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Saturday November 18 2023, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera,
and Merced Counties. Burning Discouraged in Tulare County, and
Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM PST Sunday for
CAZ331>334-338.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
Sunday for CAZ323-326.
Source: NWS
