November 30, 2023 - Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 4.9 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down (refer to "Updates to GDP").

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased (table 2).

Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in consumer spending and private inventory investment and an upturn in exports that were partly offset by a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports turned up.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 8.9 percent at an annual rate, or $581.5 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $27.64 trillion, an upward revision of $20.9 billion from the previous estimate (tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file on BEA's website.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, the same as previously estimated (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.8 percent, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.3 percent, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income increased $218.3 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $18.8 billion from the previous estimate. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries), nonfarm proprietors' income, and personal interest income that were partly offset by a decrease in personal current transfer receipts (table 8).

Disposable personal income increased $144.0 billion, or 2.9 percent, in the third quarter, an upward revision of $48.2 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 0.1 percent, an upward revision of 1.1 percentage points.

Personal saving was $815.4 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $51.0 billion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.0 percent, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point.

Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent (revised) in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 3.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent (revised) in the second quarter (table 1).

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $105.7 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $6.9 billion in the second quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $18.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $54.2 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $76.2 billion, compared with an increase of $39.0 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $10.7 billion, compared with an increase of $22.1 billion. In the third quarter, receipts increased $17.4 billion, and payments increased $6.7 billion.

Updates to GDP

With the second estimate, upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, residential investment, private inventory investment, and federal government spending were partly offset by downward revisions to consumer spending and exports. Imports were revised down. For more information, refer to the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the "Additional Information" section that follows.

Updates to Second-Quarter Wages and Salaries

In addition to presenting updated estimates for the third quarter, today's release presents revised estimates of second-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance, based on updated data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $167.8 billion in the second quarter, a downward revision of $16.5 billion. Personal current taxes are now estimated to have decreased $59.8 billion, a downward revision of $2.9 billion. Contributions for government social insurance are now estimated to have increased $20.1 billion, a downward revision of $2.2 billion. With the incorporation of these new data, real gross domestic income is now estimated to have increased 0.5 percent in the second quarter, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point from the previously published estimate.
Source: BEA