California and National Drought Summary for November 10, 2015
Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico
Conditions generally change little during the cold season in Alaska, and this past week was no exception, with areas of abnormal dryness persisting. In Hawaii, much of the state has seen above normal precipitation since October, but the leeward areas statewide have been drying out. D0 has been introduced in these areas, with the most acute dryness noted from western Maui to Kauai. Meanwhile, rainfall continues to slowly ease the drought in eastern Puerto Rico, even as the typically drier time of year gets underway. The east-central and southeastern parts of the island, where drought has been most intense, received 2 to locally over 5 inches of rain, with 1 or 2 inches falling on most other locations in eastern and southern sections of the Commonwealth. As a result, severe drought eased to moderate levels in part of the eastern interior, and D3 retracted somewhat farther to the southeast.The Central Great Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Lower Ohio Valley
Looking at the area from Indiana westward through Nebraska and Kansas, beneficial light to moderate precipitation in the western half of Nebraska and adjacent Colorado, some of which fell as snow. This brought an end to the abnormal dryness in the southern Nebraska Panhandle and adjacent Colorado. Farther south and east, only light precipitation at best fell from central parts of Indiana, Illinois and Missouri westward through Kansas, primarily in eastern sections of the region. As a result, limited D0 and D1 expansion occurred in parts of Kansas, where very little precipitation fell. No changes seemed warranted farther east. Most of eastern Kansas and the southwestern quarter of Missouri received less than half of normal precipitation during the last 30 days, as did portions of central Indiana and Illinois. Precipitation deficits of at least 4 inches have accumulated in most of the same region since early August, with totals in much of central Missouri 6 to 8 inches below normal during this period.The Northeast, Central Appalachians, and Upper Ohio Valley
It was a dry week overall for the region. The central Appalachians and eastern Ohio received anywhere from a few tenths of an inch to about an inch of precipitation while areas farther north and east got little or none. Conditions generally change slowly in this region during the colder time of year, and despite a slight increase in moisture deficits, no change in dryness or drought intensity was justified.The Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region
In the area from eastern Montana to the Great Lakes region, 0.5 to 1.5 inches of precipitation were reported in a few areas, with little or none elsewhere. Specifically, a large part of Wisconsin and most of Michigan recorded the heavier amounts, as did a swath from northern Minnesota and eastern North Dakota southwestward through central South Dakota and into western Nebraska. A significant proportion of this fell as snow. Precipitation is usually more beneficial this time of year, when evaporative loss is small and water demand is down. However, amounts were only moderate and not widespread, so the Drought Monitor depiction did not change this week, with one exception: Much of the southeastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan was removed from D0, along with a small portion of the Lower Peninsula. Including this week’s precipitation, Generally 2 to locally 5 inches has fallen in the last 30 days, sufficient to end the abnormal dryness.The Rockies, Intermountain West, and Far West
Moderate to heavy precipitation fell on most of this region. Most areas from the Mississippi/Ohio Confluence southward through the Lower Mississippi Valley, southeastern Oklahoma, and eastern Texas reported at least an inch of precipitation, with 2 to locally over 5 inches measured in a swath from southern Missouri into northwestern Arkansas, plus an area farther south extending from southeast Oklahoma and northeastern Texas eastward through southern Arkansas, much of Louisiana, and some parts of Mississippi outside the areas of abnormal dryness and moderate drought. Large areas of improvement were introduced in the wetter areas, and most other areas were unchanged; however, D0 was expanded into parts of eastern Arkansas, southwestern Tennessee, and northwestern Mississippi that missed most of the precipitation. The eastern half of this area received only 50% to 75% of normal rainfall in the last 30 days, and deficits of 4 to locally 6 inches have accumulated since early September.The South Atlantic States
Moderate to heavy rain fell on central and southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle last week, bringing widespread improvement. Most areas recorded at least 1.5 inches, and part of south-central Georgia and the central Florida Panhandle reported 4 to locally 8 inches. This brought a widespread one-category improvement to most of the region outside the southern tier of Georgia and most of the eastern Florida Panhandle, where moderate rain still left 90-day totals at least 3 inches below normal, with deficits as high as 7 inches observed in the remaining D1 area.Farther east and south, rainfall was not as heavy, with only scattered locations reporting over an inch. This prompted the introduction of a small D0 area in southeastern Georgia and adjacent Florida, and generally keeping abnormal dryness in east-central and southern Florida. The only change was to extend D0 northward into western Broward County in southern Florida.
The Southeastern Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Adjacent Southeast
Moderate to heavy precipitation fell on most of this region. Most areas from the Mississippi/Ohio Confluence southward through the Lower Mississippi Valley, southeastern Oklahoma, and eastern Texas reported at least an inch of precipitation, with 2 to locally over 5 inches measured in a swath from southern Missouri into northwestern Arkansas, plus an area farther south extending from southeast Oklahoma and northeastern Texas eastward through southern Arkansas, much of Louisiana, and some parts of Mississippi outside the areas of abnormal dryness and moderate drought. Large areas of improvement were introduced in the wetter areas, and most other areas were unchanged; however, D0 was expanded into parts of eastern Arkansas, southwestern Tennessee, and northwestern Mississippi that missed most of the precipitation. The eastern half of this area received only 50% to 75% of normal rainfall in the last 30 days, and deficits of 4 to locally 6 inches have accumulated since early September.Looking Ahead
During November 12-16, the heaviest precipitation should fall on windward slopes in western Washington and northern Idaho. Peak values of 12 to nearly 18 inches are anticipated in the northwesternmost reaches of Washington while totals may top 6 inches in northernmost Idaho. Substantial totals are also expected in western Oregon and far northwestern California, with amounts topping out in the 2 to 4 inch range along the Oregon Coast. Relatively heavy precipitation is also anticipated across the northern half of the Great Lakes, with 2 to 3 inches forecast in northwestern Wisconsin and adjacent areas. Meanwhile, moderate precipitation (with amounts above 2 inches only in a few isolated locations) is expected across the northern half of New England and New York, far southern Florida, the southeastern Great Plains and western Lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. Temperatures should average well above normal (5 to 10 degrees) in the northern half of the Plains and much of the Great Lakes Region. In contrast, temperatures should average around 3 degrees below normal in the Great Basin and central Intermountain West.For the ensuing 5 days (November 17-21), the odds at least slightly favor wetter than normal conditions nationwide, except in a small part of the northern Plains and in a swath across the Big Bend of Texas, southern sections of Arizona and New Mexico, and central and southern California. All of Alaska has enhanced chances for above normal precipitation as well. The best chances for wetness are in the southern half of the Mississippi Valley. We should see warmer than normal temperatures on average in the central and eastern parts of the country and cooler than typical conditions from the Rockies westward.
Author(s):
Richard Tinker, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC
Dryness Categories
D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.Drought Intensity Categories
D1 ... Moderate DroughtD2 ... Severe Drought
D3 ... Extreme Drought
D4 ... Exceptional Drought
Drought or Dryness Types
S ... Short-Term, typically <6 months (e.g. agricultural, grasslands)L ... Long-Term, typically >6 months (e.g. hydrology, ecology)
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center
