California and National Drought Summary for January 5, 2016
Summary
It was a fairly dry week over much of the United States with the majority of the country seeing little to no precipitation. The exceptions were in south Texas, the Southeast, and along the Pacific coast. At the end of the current U.S. Drought Monitor period and the beginning of the next, the first of several storms started sweeping across the West Coast and into the Southwest. The resulting precipitation will be analyzed for potential improvements to the region next week. Temperatures remained well above normal for the upper Midwest and for most areas east of the Mississippi River. Departures of 5-10 degrees above normal were common from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast as well as in eastern North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin. Below-normal temperatures were common for most areas west of the Missouri River. Portions of the northern Rocky Mountains were 15-20 degrees below normal in the last week.Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico
Alaska had above-normal precipitation along the coast but no changes were made to the abnormally dry conditions. Hawaii was dry for the week and several degradations were made. Abnormally dry conditions were expanded over Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island while moderate drought was introduced on the Big Island, mainly due to deteriorating pasture conditions. Abnormally dry conditions were also introduced over Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe. There were no changes for Puerto Rico this week.High Plains and South
Dry conditions prevailed over much of the High Plains and the South region, with southern Texas the only area showing any changes for the week. After a very wet end to the year, drought is not a concern over much of the Plains and the South-Central states. Most of the abnormally dry conditions in south Texas were removed this week, with only a few small areas of dryness remaining.Midwest
Most of the Midwest was warmer than normal for the week, with the greatest departures, of 9-12 degrees above normal, in the northern areas of the region. The Midwest was also dry, with only isolated light precipitation. The recent shift to a wetter regime led to improvements to the moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions that existed in southern Michigan, northern Indiana and Ohio. The moderate drought conditions were removed from all of the region and the abnormally dry conditions were reduced in what amounted to a full-category improvement for much of the region.Southeast
Above-normal temperatures dominated the Southeast this week. From the coastal Carolinas south into Georgia and Florida, temperatures were 9-12 degrees above normal for the week. Most of this same region recorded above-normal precipitation for the week. With the recent wet pattern, only a slight expansion of the abnormally dry conditions in east central Florida was made this week. The dryness in the region goes back to the last 90-120 days and many indicators were supporting the expansion of D0, even during the dry season. No other changes were made in the region this week.The Northeast/ Mid-Atlantic
With the warmer-than-normal temperatures, a “snow drought” is affecting many outdoor winter activities in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Some lingering dryness remains, with no changes to the drought status this week and some elimination of the abnormally dry conditions northwestern Pennsylvania.West
The weather pattern remains active over the West and the temperatures are very seasonal, cooler than the last two winters. There has been good snow accumulation in the upper elevations and rain in the lower elevations. For this week, improvements were made in eastern Washington and Oregon, where most areas to the east of Cascade Mountains had a full-category reduction in drought intensity, with moderate to severe drought lingering. Northern Idaho saw an improvement to the severe drought (D2) conditions, leaving moderate drought. Severe drought conditions also improved in southern Idaho this week. In northeast Nevada and northwest Utah, abnormally dry conditions improved slightly, and in southern Utah, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions improved slightly. In the Four Corners region in northwest New Mexico, abnormally dry conditions improved. But prolonged dryness led to expansion of drought in northern Wyoming and southeast Montana. This area has not been as fortunate and dryness has lingered since autumn, so D0 and D1 expanded this week, pushing moderate drought into southeast Montana.The analysis of California is ongoing, with the good start to the current water year bringing optimism to the region. The deficits over the last three years are significant enough that potential improvements are going to be slow to develop. The systems bringing precipitation to the region at the end of this current United States Drought Monitor period will be assessed next week.
Looking Ahead
Over the next 5-7 days, the active pattern will continue along the West Coast with several storms projected to bring precipitation from southern Oregon into southern California, Arizona and the Four Corners region. As these storms track eastward, much of the Midwest and East Coast will have the opportunity for ample precipitation as well. Cooler-than-normal temperatures over the western half of the country will provide a good opportunity for snow accumulation, especially at the higher altitudes. The East will see high temperatures of 8-10 degrees above normal.The 6-10 day outlooks show that the odds for temperatures to be cooler than normal are greatest over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions as well as over much of the eastern United States, High Plains, and For Corners regions. The greatest odds of warmer than normal temperatures is over the West Coast as well as much of Alaska. The best odds of above normal precipitation includes the west coast, Gulf Coast into Florida, and the Great Lakes regions. For much of the central Rocky Mountains, Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic, there are above normal chances of below normal precipitation.
Author(s):
Brian Fuchs, National Drought Mitigation Center
Dryness Categories
D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.Drought Intensity Categories
D1 ... Moderate DroughtD2 ... Severe Drought
D3 ... Extreme Drought
D4 ... Exceptional Drought
Drought or Dryness Types
S ... Short-Term, typically <6 months (e.g. agricultural, grasslands)L ... Long-Term, typically >6 months (e.g. hydrology, ecology)
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center
