New Syracuse University/Ipsos poll also finds that a majority believe American democracy works well for most people

June 27, 2024 - Washington D.C. – A new Syracuse University/Ipsos American Identity poll finds that 61% of Americans are likely to watch a televised debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. While a majority, regardless of partisanship, are likely to watch the debate, Republicans (75%) are significantly more likely to say they will compared to Democrats (60%) and independents (58%).

The poll, which was conducted by Ipsos for Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship, also finds that two-thirds of Americans (68%) believe American democracy “works pretty well for most people,” while 28% say Democracy “isn’t working and we need a change.” Along these lines, 49% say Trump is a major threat to the American democratic system and rule of law compared to 34% who say the same of Biden. Of note, independents are significantly more likely to view Trump as a major threat to the American democratic system (52% vs 32%).

Lastly, while 45% of Americans believe that journalists are essential to protecting democracy, just 22% trust most mainstream news outlets to give them the facts, whether or not they agree with them. A third report that they often have a hard time knowing what is actually news and what sources they can trust (34%), and one in five either don’t trust any news outlets (20%) or trust their preferred news outlet but not most others (19%).

About the Study

This Syracuse University/Ipsos poll was conducted by Ipsos from May 17 to May 19, 2024, using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,017 adults age 18 or older. The sample includes 269 Republicans, 332 Democrats, and 304 independents.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the U.S. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The study was conducted in English. The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, and household income. Party ID benchmarks are from the 2023 NPORS annual survey. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS).

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45-59 and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other, Non-Hispanic, Hispanic, 2+ Races, Non-Hispanic)
• Education (Less than High School, High School, Some College, Bachelor or higher)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Democrat, Lean Democrat, Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Something else)

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.14. For Republicans, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 6.3 percentage points, and the design effect is 1.10. For Democrats, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.7 percentage points, and the design effect is 1.13. For independents, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 6.0 percentage points, and the design effect is 1.16.

The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

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Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and Mid-60 indices and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD). ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com
Source: Ipsos