However, Reuters/Ipsos polling fielded after the assassination attempt and GOP Vice President announcement shows most Americans are concerned about political violence

July 17, 2024 - Washington DC - New Reuters/Ipsos polling finds that former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden remain locked in a statistical tie among registered voters following the assassination attempt on Trump over the weekend and the selection of Republican Senator J.D. Vance as Trump’s running mate. A plurality of Americans do not know who Vance is, but those who do view him more unfavorably than favorably.

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A majority of Americans are concerned about political violence. A wide majority of Americans are concerned about acts of political violence throwing the country into chaos, with most saying the country is spiraling out of control. Most say Trump is lucky to have survived the assassination attempt and about one in three say he was favored by divine providence.

Detailed findings:

• Former president Trump (43%) and President Biden (41%) remain tied among registered voters. Adding in independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the ballot makes little difference. Among registered voters, 40% support Trump, 39% support Biden, and 11% support Kennedy.
• Expanding the ballot, Vice President Kamala Harris also ties with Trump, each earning 44% among registered voters.
• Senator Vance is not known by a plurality of Americans (44%). Notably, this poll began fielding the day Vance was announced as Trump’s running mate. Among those who say they have an opinion of Vance, more view him unfavorably (30%) than favorably (24%), with 19% viewing him very unfavorably.
• Looking at favorability of Vance among registered voters produces a similar pattern. Among registered voters, 35% don't know Vance, 34% view him unfavorably, and 29% view him favorably. 
• Most Americans are concerned about acts of political violence. However, more Americans are concerned about acts of violence against people in their community for their political beliefs (67%) than for their religious beliefs (58%). 
• Americans are very concerned about acts of violence throwing the country into chaos, with 86% of Americans concerned and 56% of Americans very concerned. Similarly, there is widespread worry among the public that Americans will resort to violence instead of coming together peacefully to solve disagreements (57% very concerned, and 87% total concern).
• Most (79%) say the country is spiraling out of control and 47% say the mainstream media is biased and should be punished.
• Most say Trump was very lucky to have survived the assassination attempt, with one-third of Americans agreeing that he was favored by divine providence.
• When it comes to which candidate has the temperament of a leader, the country is split, but slightly favors Biden. When evaluating if their response to the shooting showed the temperament of a leader, slightly more agree Biden (53%) has the temperament compared to Trump (47%).
• However, Biden is seen as too old to work in government by more Americans (69%) compared to 49% who say the same about Trump, and only 25% say Biden is mentally sharp, compared to 46% who say the same about Trump.

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted July 16, 2024, by Ipsos for Reuters using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative probability sample of 1,202 general population adults age 18 or older in the United States. The sample includes 992 registered voters, 402 Democrats, 361 Republicans, and 331 Independents.

The margin of sampling error for this study is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.16. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on other sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent. The poll also has a margin of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for registered voters, plus or minus 5.2 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 5.4 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 5.9 percentage points for independents. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which is 1.13 among registered voters, 1.11 among Democrats, 1.09 among Republicans, and 1.18 among independents.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, Census region, education, household income, metropolitan status, and political party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Political Party benchmarks came from NPORS 2024. More details about the weighting benchmarks for this study can be found below:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelors and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Political party (Republican, Democrat, Independent, Other/Not Asked/Skipped)

About Ipsos

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Source: Ipsos