Below are five charts on where Americans stand on the economy, who’s still hurting, and how this may affect the presidential race

July 20, 2024 - The U.S. economy has been in a weird spot in 2024. Despite an economy that defied experts’ most pessimistic predictions and despite cooling inflation, most consumers still had a pessimistic view of the economy.

That said, new LSEG/Ipsos polling suggests consumer confidence among Americans has started to nudge up.

Where do Americans stand when it comes to the economy? And what does this mean for the election? Below are five charts on where Americans stand on the economy, who’s still hurting, and how this may affect the presidential race.

1. Positive signs, but not out of the woods just yet. The rate of inflation has mostly subsided. Recent job numbers have also been promising. Consumer confidence too seems to be on the rise, though it’s far from its pre-pandemic peaks.
2. Purchasing confidence up. Purchasing confidence has been slow to recover after the high inflationary period of 2022, but it’s starting to show signs of recovering. Inflation is still affecting the nation, but these signs suggest Americans starting to get used to higher prices.
   
   
   
3. Who’s still hurting? Inflation is typically a regressive tax: it affects lower income Americans more than higher income Americans. That’s evident in the numbers. Consumer confidence has yet to recover among lower income, non-white demographics compared to wealthier and white Americans.
   
   
   
   
4. A key electoral issue. The economy will remain a key pillar of the 2024 election. That said, it’s not the only issue Americans have their eye on: political extremism and threats to democracy is also a key issue for many Americans, and stands to potentially rise following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump.
   
   
   
   
5. Can Biden benefit from improving consumer confidence? Right now, Americans trust Trump over Biden when it comes to the economy. Biden has long struggled to receive credit when it comes to the economy. But with Americans becoming increasingly confident in the economy, does this stand to change?
   

Economic conditions have been improving over the course of 2024, and it looks like some (but not all) Americans are starting to warm up to it.

This is a space worth watching heading into November. Presidents presiding over good or improving economies have historically seen improvements in their approval ratings, a historical trend that could fare well for President Biden’s chances at reelection. That said, it’s worth monitoring whether consumer confidence will continue to rise or if voters will give Biden any credit. An improving confidence helps less than a declining economy hurts. Stay tuned.
Source: Ipsos