New ABC New/Ipsos Poll Finds Most Democrats Are Very Enthusiastic About Kamala Harris As the Democratic Nominee - Opinions of Republican Nominee and Former President Donald Trump Have Cooled Slightly

Details: Last Updated: Monday, 29 July 2024 05:07; Published: Monday, 29 July 2024 06:39

July 29, 2024 - Washington DC — In the first ABC News/Ipsos poll since President Joe Biden stepped out of the 2024 presidential election and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement on the Democratic ticket, enthusiasm and interest in voting has strengthened among Democrats. This comes as opinions of Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump have cooled slightly after jumping up in the week after the attempt on his life and the Republican National Convention.

Click here to read ABC News' story.

Detailed findings

In the ongoing Democratic “veepstakes,” the majority of potential vice-presidential candidates remain unknown to large sections of the American public. Among the figures tested, U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg and California Gov. Gavin Newsom are the most well-known among Americans, but Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and Buttigieg have the most positive profile (greater favorable than unfavorable evaluations) with the public.

A large majority (86%) of Democrats and half (52%) of Americans say that Harris should be the Democratic nominee for president, with 14% of Democrats saying the party should select a different nominee.
Nine in ten (88%) Democrats are enthusiastic (63% very and 25% somewhat) about Harris becoming the Democratic nominee. In comparison, 82% of Republicans say they are enthusiastic about Trump being the Republican nominee.

Two-thirds (66%) of Americans report they are “absolutely certain to vote” in the upcoming presidential election, including 76% of Democrats and 78% of Republicans. This is up from 70% among Democrats and roughly unchanged among Republicans (75%) from the last ABC News/Ipsos poll produced before Biden left the race.
Among the potential Democratic VP picks, Buttigieg (54% offering an opinion) and Newsom (also 54%) are the most known to the American public. However, Kelly (22% favorable, 12% unfavorable), Shapiro (17% favorable, 13% unfavorable), Beshear (13% favorable, 9% unfavorable), and Buttigieg (29% favorable, 25% unfavorable) and have the most positive profiles among those familiar with them.
Views of Joe Biden have improved slightly since he stepped out of the 2024 race. Currently, 37% of Americans report a favorable opinion of the President, up from 32% the week of the RNC.

About the Study

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted July 26 to 27, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,200 adults age 18 or older with oversamples among Black and Hispanic respondents.

One respondent was removed from the final data for refusing all of the survey items.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. A prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. No reminder emails were sent for this study.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.14. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, party identification, race/ethnicity by gender, race/ethnicity by age, and race/ethnicity by education. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Party ID benchmarks are from the most recent ABC News/Ipsos poll. The weighting categories were as follows:

Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelor and beyond)
Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
Party ID (Republican/lean Republican, Independent/Something else, Lean Democrat/Democrat)
Race/ethnicity (White/Other Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Hispanic) by Gender (Male, Female)
Race/ethnicity (White/Other Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Hispanic) by Age (18-44, 45+)
Race/ethnicity (White/Other Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Hispanic) by Education (Some college or less, Bachelor and beyond)

About Ipsos

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).
Source: Ipsos