New ABC News/Ipsos Polling Finds Most Think Kamala Harris Will Accept the Outcome of the Election, Few Think Donald Trump Will – Most Americans Trust the Election Process and Vote Count

Details: Last Updated: Sunday, 01 September 2024 04:19; Published: Sunday, 01 September 2024 07:19

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September 1, 2024 - Washington DC - New ABC News/Ipsos polling finds a majority of Americans think Vice President Kamala Harris is prepared to accept the outcome of the election as legitimate, while far fewer Americans think former President Donald Trump is prepared to do the same. A decisive majority of the public are ready to accept the results of the presidential election as legitimate and are confident that votes will be counted accurately in this election. Relatedly, most continue to think President Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election. Read the ABC News story here.

Detailed findings:

1. Far more Americans feel that Harris rather than Trump is prepared to accept the outcome of the presidential election as legitimate.

Two in three (68%) Americans think that Harris is prepared to accept the outcome of the presidential election as legitimate, with three in ten (29%) feeling she may not be ready to.
By comparison, just three in ten Americans think Trump is prepared to accept the outcome of the presidential election as legitimate, while two in three (67%) feel Trump is not prepared to view the results of the presidential election as legitimate, an inverse of how Americans feel about Harris.

2. A majority of Americans think President Biden did legitimately win the 2020 presidential election, and most Americans are prepared to accept the outcome of the 2024 presidential election as legitimate.

Four in five (81%) Americans are prepared to accept the outcome of the 2024 presidential election as legitimate, 17% say they are not prepared to accept, and 2% skipped the question.
Most Americans (65%) also are confident that the votes in the presidential election will be counted accurately, while one in three (34%) are less confident, unchanged from when the question was last asked in 2022.
For the 2020 presidential election, a majority of Americans (64%) think that Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election, while one in three (34%) think Biden did not legitimately win the election, in line with views from 2021 and 2023.

About the Study

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted August 23 to 27, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. Invitations were sent to 4,335 panelists, resulting in 2,496 completed interviews. In quality control, 47 respondents were removed for skipping half or more of the questions or completing the survey in the fastest 1 percent times. For more precise analysis, the survey includes oversamples of n=110 Black people, n=124 Hispanic people and n=122 people age 18-29, with these groups scaled to their correct proportion of the population in weighting.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. Two email reminders were sent to hard-to-reach respondents. Hard-to-reach is defined as 18-29 years old or non-Whites, less than high school or did not vote in the 2020 presidential election. The remainder of the sample received one reminder email.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region by metropolitan status, household income, language dominance, 2020 presidential vote choice, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Language dominance benchmarks are from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS). The 2020 presidential vote choice benchmarks came from the federal elections 2020 election results for the U.S. President while the Party Identification came from the 2024 National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS). The weighting categories were as follows:

Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
Education (No high school diploma or GED, High school graduate (high school diploma or the equivalent GED), Some college or Associate’s degree, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree or above)
Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) by Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
Language Dominance (English dominant, Bilingual, Spanish dominant, non-Hispanic)
2020 Presidential Vote Choice (Biden, Trump, Another candidate, Not asked)
Party Identification (Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Not lean, Lean Democrat, Democrat).

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.13. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

About Ipsos

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Source: Ipsos