October 28, 2024 - Washington, D.C. - New ABC News/Ipsos polling finds the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains close. Since August, the ballot has remained relatively stable. Registered voters trust Trump more than Harris on the economy and inflation. Compared to April, Harris has narrowed Trump’s advantage on the economy. Registered voters see Harris as better at protecting democracy, abortion, and looking out for the middle class than Trump. On questions of character and fitness for office, Harris outperforms Trump on attributes like honesty and mental or physical fitness. However, voters are split on who can be trusted more in a crisis. Harris’ performance on these questions has not changed dramatically since August. Yet, she performs better than President Joe Biden, particularly on mental and physical fitness. Read more on ABC News.

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Many Americans are skeptical of the communications from both campaigns

Detailed Findings:

 1. Days away from Election Day, the race remains close, as many Americans are preparing their voting plans.

• Two in three Americans say they are absolutely certain to vote or probably will do so. Eight percent say they have already voted.
• Among those who are certain to vote but haven’t done so yet, a bare majority plan to do so by mail or in person before Election Day, while 42% say they will vote in person on Election Day.
• If the presidential election were held today, 51% of likely voters say they would support Harris and 47% would back Trump, statistically unchanged from ABC News/Ipsos polling conducted earlier this month.

2. Registered voters prefer Trump on the economy and inflation, the two most important issues to Americans when deciding how to vote.

• Most registered voters (90%) say the economy is the single most important or is a very important issue in their choice of which candidate to support. The economy has been the most important issue for Americans since April 2024.
• Decisive majorities of registered voters also say inflation (85%), protecting American democracy (81%), health care (75%), and crime and safety (75%) are important issues in their choice for president, consistent from April.
• Trump is seen as better at handling the economy and inflation, the two most important issues for registered voters and Americans overall. Forty-eight percent of registered voters trust Trump to handle the economy, compared to 40% who say the same of Harris. Similarly, 46% trust Trump on inflation, compared to 39% who trust Harris. Since Harris rose to the top of the ticket, these ratings have not shifted significantly. These numbers represent an improvement over President Biden’s performance in April, when he was the presumptive Democratic nominee. 
• Trump is also seen as better at dealing with immigration among registered voters (49% Trump vs. 37% Harris). For crime and safety, slightly more registered voters trust Trump over Harris (45% vs. 41%).
• On the other hand, among registered voters, Harris is seen as better on abortion (49% Harris vs. 34% Trump), health care (46% vs. 36%), protecting American democracy (47% vs. 39%), and looking out for the middle class (45% vs. 39%). 

3. On questions of character and fitness for office, Harris outperforms Trump among registered voters.

• More registered voters feel Harris over Trump is honest and trustworthy (43% vs. 28%), has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president (49% vs. 38%), is in good enough physical health to serve effectively as president (58% vs. 29%), represents their personal values (43% vs. 35%), and understands the problems of people like them (43% vs. 33%).
• However, registered voters are more split on who can be trusted in a crisis (43% Harris vs. 41% Trump).
• Harris improves upon Biden’s performance on the question of mental and physical fitness.

 4. Enthusiasm among Trump and Harris supporters is strong.

• Of Americans who say they will vote for Harris, 82% are very or somewhat enthusiastic about supporting her, while 18% are not enthusiastic.
• Seventy-nine percent of Trump supporters are enthusiastic about supporting the former president, while one in five (21%) are not.
• Outside of fundraising appeals, most Americans say they have not been contacted by the Harris or Trump campaigns for their vote (66% and 70%, respectively). Among those who say they have been contacted, slightly more say the Harris campaign rather than the Trump campaign has reached them (34% vs. 29%). Text is the most common way campaigns reach these Americans (21% contacted by the Harris campaign vs. 16% by the Trump campaign).
• President Biden’s approval rating remains low. Thirty-six percent of Americans and 39% of registered voters approve of the way Biden is handling his job as president.

About the Study

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted October 18 to 22, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. Invitations were sent to 4,917 panelists, resulting in 2,808 completed interviews. In quality control, 67 respondents were removed for skipping half or more of the questions or completing the survey in the fastest 1 percent times. For more precise analysis, the survey includes oversamples of n=140 Black people, n=145 Hispanic people and n=151 people age 18-29, with these groups scaled to their correct proportion of the population in weighting.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. Two email reminders were sent to hard-to-reach respondents. Hard-to-reach is defined as 18-29 years old or non-Whites, less than high school or did not vote in the 2020 presidential election.  The remainder of the sample received one reminder email.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region by metropolitan status, household income, language dominance, 2020 presidential vote choice, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2024 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Language dominance benchmarks are from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS). The 2020 presidential vote choice benchmarks came from the federal elections 2020 election results for the U.S. President while the Party Identification came from the 2024 National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS). The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (No high school diploma or GED, High school graduate (high school diploma or the equivalent GED), Some college or Associate’s degree, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree or above)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) by Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Language Dominance (English dominant, Bilingual, Spanish dominant, non-Hispanic)
• 2020 Presidential Vote Choice (Biden, Trump, Another candidate, Not asked)
• Party Identification (Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Not lean, Lean Democrat, Democrat).

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.14. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

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Source: Ipsos