November 4, 2024 - Washington D.C -  Days away from the presidential election, the race for the White House remains close, according to new ABC News/Ipsos polling. Opinions of the two major party candidates remain stable, statistically unchanged from earlier this year. Most likely voters are dissatisfied with their choices for president, and few likely voters say they are better off financially compared to when President Joe Biden first took office. However, more likely voters feel Vice President Kamala Harris, over former President Donald Trump, has the personality and temperament to serve effectively as president. Most likely voters expect Trump to shake things up if elected – though slightly more feel those changes would be negative rather than positive. Likely voters are nearly evenly divided on whether Harris would shake things up in a good way, a bad way, or leave things as they are. Read more on ABC News.

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Detailed findings:

1. The race for president remains close, as roughly a quarter of Americans have already cast their vote.

• Forty-nine percent of likely voters say that if the presidential election were held today, they would vote for Harris, while 46% of likely voters say the same for Trump. This is statistically unchanged from polling conducted in late October, earlier in October, and in September.
• One in four Americans (24%) say they have already voted. Sixty-two percent of likely voters say they are absolutely certain to vote.
• Of likely voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote, 46% say they will vote in-person on Election Day. The rest are split between voting by mail ballot (27%) or in-person before Election Day (25%), while 1% are unsure.
• Eighty-eight percent of likely voters report following the 2024 presidential race at least somewhat closely, with about one in ten (12%) report following the race not so closely or not at all. 

2. Even as most likely voters are dissatisfied with their choice for president this year, attitudes toward the two major party candidates are stable.

• Throughout 2024, Harris' and Trump’s favorability among the public overall has not changed substantially.
• Likely voters are split on their favorability toward Harris; Forty-eight percent hold a favorable opinion of Harris, 48% have an unfavorable opinion, and 3% have no opinion.
• More likely voters hold an unfavorable than a favorable opinion of Trump; Thirty-seven percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, 60% have an unfavorable opinion, and 2% don’t know what to think.
• Most likely voters (60%) are very or somewhat dissatisfied with the choice between Harris and Trump as the major-party candidates for president this year. Just 38% of likely voters are satisfied with their choices.
• Few likely voters (19%) think they are now better off financially than when Biden first became president. Slightly more likely voters say they are not well off than those who say they are in about the same place financially (42% vs. 39%, respectively). 

3. More likely voters feel Harris, over Trump, has the personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president. More likely voters expect that, if elected, Trump over Harris would shake things up, with slightly more thinking those changes would be negative rather than positive.

• More likely voters feel Harris (46%) over Trump (37%) has the personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president. Four percent feel both do, and one in ten (12%) feel neither does.
• If elected, about one in three likely voters (35%) think Harris would shake things up in a good way, and 31% feel she would shake things up in a bad way. A nearly equal share, 34%, think Harris would leave things pretty much as they are.
• More likely voters expect that, if elected, Trump would shake things up, with those who feel he would shake things up in a bad way slightly outnumbering those who think he would shake things up in a good way. Forty-five percent think he would shake things up in a good way, 51% think he would shake things up in a bad way, and only four percent believe he would leave things pretty much as they are. 

About the Study

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted October 29 to November 1, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. Invitations were sent to 5,183 panelists, resulting in 3,140 completed interviews. In quality control, 53 respondents were removed for skipping half or more of the questions or completing the survey in the fastest 1 percent times. For more precise analysis, the survey includes oversamples of n=145 Black people, n=176 Hispanic people, and n=151 people age 18-29, with these groups scaled to their correct proportion of the population in weighting.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. A prenotification email was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. One reminder was sent to hard-to-reach respondents. Hard-to-reach is defined as 18-29 years old or non-Whites, less than high school or did not vote in the 2020 presidential election.  The remaining sample did not receive a reminder email.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region by metropolitan status, household income, language dominance, 2020 presidential vote choice, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2024 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Language dominance benchmarks are from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS). The 2020 presidential vote choice benchmarks came from the federal elections 2020 election results for the U.S. President while the Party Identification and frequency of internet use came from the 2024 National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS). The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (No high school diploma or GED, High school graduate (high school diploma or the equivalent GED), Some college or Associate’s degree, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree or above)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) by Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Language Dominance (English dominant, Bilingual, Spanish dominant, non-Hispanic)
• 2020 Presidential Vote Choice (Biden, Trump, Another candidate, Not asked)
• Party Identification (Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Not lean, Lean Democrat, Democrat)
• Frequency of Internet Use (Almost constantly, Several times a day, About once a day or Several times a week, Less often/Don’t Know/Refused).

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.30. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

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Source: Ipsos