April 3, 2025 - The Ipsos Consumer Tracker asks Americans questions about culture, the economy and the forces that shape our lives. Here's one thing we learned this week. Download results
Why we asked: The economic policies of the current administration have revived talk of a recession, talk the administration isn’t arguing with. As the New York Times reports, “Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, has said Mr. Trump’s policies are ‘worth it’ even if they cause a recession. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, has said the economy may need a ‘detox period’ after becoming dependent on government spending. And Mr. Trump has said there will be a ‘period of transition’ as his policies take effect.” So we put together a new battery of questions with a couple important statements in it that we plan to trend from time to time.
What we found: 61% overall think the U.S. is headed for a recession in the next year. And only 24% think the economic news they read is positive. But under that are … huge party splits. I know, shocking. Nearly twice as many Democrats as Republicans think the recession is coming (82% vs 44%). And Republicans are more than twice as likely to be getting positive economic news (41% vs 16%).
Likely related, the new Ipsos Certain/Satisfaction Index shows that uncertainty continues to grow across every demographic, with the biggest shifts among women and the affluent. Oh, and a huge shift (23 points!) among independents. The independents have now fully broken from the pack and are looking a lot more like Democrats in many ways. Things are generally starting to striate a little bit. Also, a majority of every demographic split is now either stuck or has a lot of uncertainty. If you add in the “some uncertainty” it’s close to 90% for everyone except Republicans, and even they show 70% having at least some uncertainty. Satisfaction also fell among most demographics, with again the strongest shift in independents but also the affluent. Now a lot of demographics are under 2.5 on a 5-point scale.
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Source: Ipsos
