August 5, 2025 - The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in July to 107.55, from an upwardly revised 108.19 in June. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.
“The ETI fell slightly in July to its lowest point since October 2024,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board. “But the ETI has remained within a tight range for more than 12 months, supporting the narrative that the labor market remains stable overall, though risks may be growing.”
Initial claims for unemployment insurance (an ETI component) moderated in July following three consecutive monthly increases. The share of involuntary part-time workers ticked up slightly to 17.1% from 16.5% in June but that ratio has declined since reaching 18% in February. Employment in the temporary-help industry declined by 4,400 in July, and has now fallen six out of seven months in 2025.
“Companies have grown more hesitant amid tariff and policy uncertainty,” added Barnes. “But companies appear to be pressing pause rather than leaning into layoffs, given that unemployment and slack remain low.”
The share of consumers who report ‘jobs are hard to get’—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey®—rose from 17.2% in June to 18.9% in July, the highest percentage since March 2021. The share of small firms that report jobs are ‘not able to be filled right now’ declined to 33% in July, from 36% in June—the highest share since January 2021. JOLTS job openings declined in June by 275,000, offsetting the rise from May, and were 4% below January levels.
“Each ETI reading in 2025 has been a mixed bag,” concluded Barnes. “While overall metrics remain largely stable, underlying components have moderated from earlier this year.”
July’s decrease in the Employment Trends Index was a result of negative contributions from four of its eight components: the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find ‘Jobs Hard to Get, the Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, the Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, and the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers. Whereas the following four components contributed positively: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Job Openings, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Industrial Production.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index ™, November 1973 to Present
The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
- Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
- Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
- Job Openings (BLS)***
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
- Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**
*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.
Source: The Conference Board
