Image by Engin Akyurt from Pixabay

Note: This statement was written as of February 28, 2026, 1 p.m. ET. As the situation continues to develop, information may change. Further updates and analysis will be posted on our blog.

March 1, 2026 - Military strikes carried out by the United States and Israel on Iranian targets are raising new concerns in global energy markets. While the geopolitical situation continues to evolve, oil prices are expected to react quickly when trading resumes — and that could translate into higher gasoline prices in both the United States and Canada in the days ahead.

Why Oil Prices Are Likely to Move Higher

The immediate concern for energy markets is not only Iran’s oil production, but the broader implications for the Strait of Hormuz — a critical waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies pass.

Even the perception of risk in this region can cause oil prices to climb, as traders factor in potential supply disruptions. Reports indicate that some oil shipments are being delayed or rerouted amid the escalating conflict, adding uncertainty to an already sensitive market.

When markets reopen, crude oil prices could rise sharply in early trading. A move of 5–10% is possible depending on how the situation develops and whether any sustained disruption to oil flows occurs.

Not a Repeat of 2022 — Yet

Some comparisons are already being made to the dramatic price spikes that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. However, the global supply picture today looks different.

In 2022, global demand was rapidly recovering from pandemic shutdowns, refinery capacity had been reduced, and supply tightness was widespread. The structural imbalance at that time was far more severe.

While the current conflict adds risk to the market, it does not automatically imply a supply shock of similar magnitude — unless disruptions expand significantly.

What U.S. Drivers Can Expect

Gasoline and diesel prices in the United States are unlikely to surge overnight, but upward pressure is expected.

Because crude oil accounts for the largest share of what drivers pay at the pump, increases in oil prices typically begin working their way into wholesale fuel markets within hours. Retail price changes often follow within a day or two.

For most states, increases are expected to be gradual — measured in pennies per day. However, some markets that experience price cycling could see sharper jumps earlier in the week.

In the first one to two weeks of March, 2026:

• The national average is likely to move above $3.00 per gallon.
• Additional increases of 10–15 cents per gallon over the next couple of weeks are possible.
• The pace and extent of increases will depend heavily on whether the conflict escalates or oil flows are materially disrupted.
• Seasonal factors are also in play, as many areas are transitioning to summer gasoline blends, which can independently push prices higher.

What This Means for Canadian Motorists

Canadian fuel prices will also feel the impact — with an additional variable to watch: the exchange rate.

Oil is globally priced in U.S. dollars. During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, the U.S. dollar often strengthens as investors seek stability. If the U.S. dollar rises against the Canadian dollar, it makes oil more expensive in Canadian-dollar terms.

That means Canadian prices could see added upward pressure if the currency weakens — even if oil moves the same percentage globally.

If currency markets remain stable, price movements in Canada should largely track wholesale shifts in North America.

What Could Push Prices Higher

Gas prices could rise more quickly if:

• Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz face sustained disruption.
• Regional infrastructure is damaged.
• The conflict expands beyond its current scope.
• Shipping or insurance costs increase sharply.
• The U.S. dollar strengthens significantly.

On the other hand, if oil continues to flow and tensions stabilize, some of the risk currently entering the market could fade.

The Bottom Line

Oil prices are expected to react first. Gasoline prices will follow — but typically with a lag and in a measured way. For now, drivers in both the U.S. and Canada should expect modest upward pressure.

GasBuddy will continue monitoring wholesale markets and providing updates as the situation develops.

---

About GasBuddy

GasBuddy®, North America’s trusted fuel savings platform for more than 25 years, empowers consumers to fuel up for less. With over 100 million app downloads, GasBuddy is reimagining everyday mobility with real-time gas prices at 150,000+ stations, tangible rewards at and beyond the pump, and the Pay with GasBuddy+™ program. Owned and operated by PDI Technologies, GasBuddy connects top brands with millions of digitally engaged consumers—wherever the road takes them—by unlocking data and insights into purchase patterns through a frictionless experience. To learn more about GasBuddy, visit gasbuddy.com.

Source: GasBuddy