September 4, 2026 - When it comes to the current economic outlook in the U.S., uncertainty abounds. Ipsos data can help. Here’s our latest research on the economy – from tariffs and stagflation to the cost-of-living crisis – and exclusive insights on what it means for brands, businesses, policymakers, and people.

Key takeaways:

• Democratic Party holds edge over GOP on cost of living

  • Nearly half of Americans (48%) say that if the 2026 midterm elections were held today, the cost of living would be their most important factor in deciding who to vote for, according to an August 2026 Reuters/Ipsos poll. Americans are now more likely to prefer the Democratic Party’s handling of the cost of living (35%) over that of the Republican Party (27%) — an eight-point edge on the cost of living also represents a shift from January, when Democrats (32%) and Republicans (31%) were roughly even.

• Americans' budgets are tight, but they want to save 

  • According to a March 2026 Junior Achievement-Ipsos survey, four in five Americans (80%) report struggling with at least one expense; half of all Americans indicate they struggle to save money in general (50%), with utilities (30%), food (28%), and gasoline (27%) being their most challenging expenses. All the same, in January 2026, 68% of Americans resolved to stick to their annual budget. 

• Fears of a recession remain high 

  • The Ipsos/U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index trended downward from Q4 2025 in Q1 2026, and found significantly fewer small businesses report planning to increase their staff or investment in the next year. This comes as concerns about inflation have risen, with a majority now saying it is the biggest challenge facing small business owners. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds (61%) of Americans think we’re headed for a recession in the next 12 months, though there's a partisan split (half of Republicans expect a recession, compared with three in four Democrats.) 

• Most Americans aren't buying the benefits of tariffs 

  • A significant number of Americans (42%) disagree that tariffs will lead to more jobs in the U.S., while only 28% (42% of Republicans) agree it’s a job creator. Meanwhile, a sizable majority (73%, even 60% of Republicans) say that tariffs will lead to higher prices and 67% say they are already paying higher prices. 

Americans are very aware of higher prices for gas (and almost everything else)

 Q: Thinking about the prices you have paid for the following in recent weeks, do they generally seem higher, lower, or about the same as they did this time last year? 

At the start of the Iran War war, gas prices had been going down and were relatively low, under $3 a gallon, according to GasBuddy. We’ve asked this since pretty early in the Tracker and for a long time during post-pandemic inflationary periods, most people said they were paying more than they were the year before. But when we asked in March, only 38% of people thought prices were higher. That doubled in just six months, to 79% agreeing that prices are higher now. Again, this does indeed reflect reality. But it also means people pay attention and really do track this. In a question we’ve asked about 20 times in recent years, we’ve never seen such a sudden and dramatic shift. (Read more.)

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Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing nearly 20,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 business solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

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Source: Ipsos