Timber (Litter and Understory) Brush (2 feet) Heavy Logging Slash

Red fir fuel type with montane shrub and brush understory interspersed with pockets of non-burnable fuels in granite rock outcrops. Fir trees are large diameter, over 100 ft. tall, and suffer from insect and disease mortality, leading to a significant snag component with large amounts of heavy dead and down coarse woody debris. Most active fire behavior has come from the dense, closed canopy red fir stands, where torching and isolated crown fire pockets have also contributed to spotting. Fuels in 2017 fire footprints have less closed canopy but contain significant dead and down with standing snags, increasing spotting potential. Surface spread rates are lower in the Empire Fire (2017) Footprint, but spotting continues to drive spread. Montane shrubs and brush in the understory are generally available to burn but are not at critical fuel moisture levels. Heavy dead and down fuels are dry, with fuel moisture in 1,000 hr. fuel around 12%.

Moderate, Spotting, Uphill Runs, Single Tree Torching

Active fire continues to be observed on the northeastern side of the fire. Movement continues upslope in the area of Horizon Ridge. Backing fire remains present on the western flank moving downhill toward Alder Creek. Heavy dead and down interior fuels continue to readily consume. Spotting and terrain are the primary drives of fire spread. With continued dry and warm weather, daily incremental increases of fire behavior are anticipated.

Strengthen primary and contingency lines. Employ rotary-wing aviation assets to check fire spread, moderate flame lengths to thresholds suitable for direct attack. Implement back firing operations in Branch 10. Crews are firing as appropriate to bring fire to containment line from Division K/M break to the west and south toward Division F. Continue with patrol and mop up in Branch 5.

12 hours: Due to poorer overnight recoveries, burning is anticipated to continue well into the evening and overnight hours. Heavy interior fuels will continue to smolder overnight. With lack of pronounced overnight winds fire spread will be minimal beyond what occurred during the main burning period.

24 hours: With the persistent warming and drying trend fire activity will incrementally increase through the operational period and following days. Fire spread will generally be terrain driven. Continued growth in the area of Horizon Ridge is possible on the eastern flank. Fire will continue to back down toward Alder Creek on the western flank. With increased receptiveness of fine fuels, spot fires may be more frequent and are a primary driver of fire spread. Heavy dead and down will allow for continuous burning to continue. Indirect control lines may be challenged if reached by fire spread.

48 hours: Continued warming and drying trend will lead to a marked increase in mixing heights. As a result, increased ventilation will lead to further increase in existing fire activity where it occurs. This will allow free burning of interior fuels and further increase the spotting potential. Fire spread that has reached alignment with uphill slopes may lead to areas of active growth. Challenge to existing indirect control lines should be anticipated if reached by fire spread.

72 hours: Continued warming and drying trend will lead to a marked increase in mixing heights. As a result, increased ventilation will lead to further increase in existing fire activity. This will allow free burning of interior fuels and further increase the spotting potential. Fire spread that has reached alignment with uphill slopes may lead to areas of active growth. Challenge to existing indirect control lines should be anticipated if reached by fire spread.

Anticipated after 72 hours: The continued weather trend will allow for active fire behavior to occur. Spread will be dependent primarily on terrain alignment. Spot fires will continue to occur as fuel outside the perimeter remain receptive and contribute to fire spread.

CIIMT-4 took command of the incident on 10/02/2026 at 0700.

Observed: Mid and high-level clouds moved over the fire today, bringing more shading, but well-above-normal temperatures and dry conditions still prevail. Highs were generally in the 70s with humidity dropping into the teens. Winds were southwest 5-10 mph with occasional gusts to around 15-20 mph.

12-Hour Overnight: Skies will clear overnight leaving just a few high clouds. Northeast winds of 3-6 mph expected overnight, with some locations seeing gusts up to 15 mph. Humidity recoveries are expected to be poor, reaching 20-30%, although some lower elevations may climb to around 40%. Low temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s under clear skies, although smoky conditions are expected in some valleys. 

24-72 Hour Forecast: Sunny skies are expected to return Saturday with temperatures remaining well above normal and continued dry conditions. Highs in the 70s with humidity dropping into the teens. Morning light winds will become southwest 5-8 mph with gusts around 15 mph. Expect the inversion to lift after 1000 local each day. 

Extended (After 72 Hours): No significant changes, as high pressure will remain over the area through much of next week. Temperatures will run several degrees above normal with dry conditions and typical diurnal winds.