Becerra Preserves Wide Lead Over Hilton; Enthusiasm Gap Favors Democrats In Congressional Races; Solid Majority Favor High-Earner Income Tax Measure

October 28, 2026 - SAN FRANCISCO - A week ahead of Election Day, Californians are exceptionally pessimistic about the direction of the country, the state, and the economy. Support for a high-profile initiative that would tax billionaires appears to be eroding. Democrat Xavier Becerra maintains a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton in the race for governor. And Democrats are far more excited than Republicans or independents about voting in congressional races. These are among the key findings from a statewide survey released on Tuesday by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Full Survey Report

Eighty-two percent of adult Californians think things in the United States are generally going in the wrong direction, the highest share holding this pessimistic view since PPIC began asking about the national outlook two decades ago. Nearly eight in ten predict bad economic conditions in both the state and the nation over the next 12 months, a high not matched since the depths of the pandemic and Great Recession.

“If you’re looking for one word to describe Californians’ mood as they are filling out their ballots, it would be gloomy—very gloomy,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy. “Affordability continues to be a central concern, with majorities across demographic groups saying their incomes are not keeping up with inflation.”

In the race for governor, Democrat Xavier Becerra has a 24 point lead over Republican Steve Hilton (61% to 37%), including a 13 point lead among independent likely voters. Californians say they are largely satisfied with their choices for governor, although that satisfaction appears to vary significantly by age: while nearly 70 percent of likely voters 55 and older are pleased with their gubernatorial choices, only half of younger voters aged 18 to 34 are satisfied.

More key findings from the survey:

• Billionaire wealth tax falls below majority support: Forty-six percent of likely voters say they will vote yes on Proposition 40, a controversial citizens’ initiative that would impose a one-time tax of up to 5 percent on taxpayers with assets over $1 billion. Last month, 52 percent of likely voters said they would support the measure.

  “Since last month, we’ve seen declining support for Prop 40, particularly among Democrats and independents,” said Baldassare. “Propositions 41 and 42, which could effectively nullify Prop 40 even if it was passed, are now polling better than the billionaire tax.”

  While support for the billionaire wealth tax appears to be eroding, a majority of likely voters back Proposition 3, which would make a temporary marginal income tax on high earners permanent. Among Democrats, 80 percent support Proposition 3, while 64 percent support the billionaire wealth tax.

• Enthusiasm gap favors Democrats in congressional races: Seventy-one percent of Democratic likely voters say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in congressional elections, compared to 46 percent of Republicans. The partisan enthusiasm gap is larger than it was ahead of the 2024 general election.

  Unhappiness with the Trump administration is likely playing a role. Seventy-eight percent of California adults disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president—the president’s highest disapproval rating among Californians during his two terms in office. Since the beginning of the year, the president’s approval ratings have dropped most acutely among independents, from 25 percent in February to 16 percent in October.

• Majorities back bond measures, oppose tax restrictions: Majorities of California likely voters back the three borrowing measures on the November ballot. More than 60 percent support Propositions 1 and 37, which would authorize tens of billions in bonds for housing programs. Fifty-seven percent say they will vote yes on Proposition 38, which would authorize $8.4 billion in bonds for immunology research. A majority also support Proposition 2, which increases the amount of revenue the state can deposit into a rainy day fund.

  A majority of likely voters oppose Proposition 43, which would make it more difficult to increase local taxes. A slim majority oppose Proposition 45 (50% oppose, 46% approve), which would modify the state’s marquee environmental law to speed construction of some new developments.

• Californians are skeptical about the need for voter ID: Nearly 60 percent of likely voters oppose Proposition 39, a citizens’ initiative that would require government-issued ID at the polls. Despite federal allegations of rampant voter fraud, 63 percent of likely voters have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the system in which votes are cast and counted in California.

About the Survey

The Californians and Their Government survey on state, local, and national issues is supported with funding from the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation. The findings are based on responses from 1,728 California adult residents. The sampling error is ±3.0 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample and ±3.8 percent for the 1,086 likely voters. Interviewing took place from October 16–22, 2026. For more information, please see the methodology section in the full survey report.

Mark Baldassare is statewide survey director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998.

The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. We are a public charity. We do not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor do we endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California.

Source: PPIC