Ful Report
January 12, 2022 - The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.Increases in the indexes for shelter and for used cars and trucks were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index also contributed, although it increased less than in recent months, rising 0.5 percent in December. The energy index declined in December, ending a long series of increases; it fell 0.4 percent as the indexes for gasoline and natural gas both decreased.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in December following a 0.5-percent increase in November. This was the sixth time in the last 9 months it has increased at least 0.5 percent. Along with the indexes for shelter and for used cars and trucks, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, apparel, new vehicles, and medical care all increased in December. As in November, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance and recreation were among the few to decline over the month.
The all items index rose 7.0 percent for the 12 months ending December, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982. The all items less food and energy index rose 5.5 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending February 1991. The energy index rose 29.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 6.3 percent.
Food
The food index increased 0.5 percent in December following larger increases in each of the three previous months. The food at home index increased 0.4 percent in December after rising 0.8 percent in November. Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in December. The index for fruits and vegetables increased the most, rising 0.9 percent over the month as the index for fresh fruits increased 1.8 percent. The index for nonalcoholic beverages rose 0.8 percent in December, and the index for dairy and related products increased 0.7 percent. The index for other food at home rose 0.6 percent, and the index for cereals and bakery products increased 0.4 percent over the month.
The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs declined in December, falling 0.4 percent after rising at least 0.7 percent in each of the last 7 months. The indexes for beef (-2.0 percent) and pork (-0.8 percent) declined after recent sharp increases.
The food away from home index rose 0.6 percent in December, the same increase as in November. The index for full service meals rose 0.8 percent, and the index for limited service meals advanced 0.6 percent over the month.
The food at home index rose 6.5 percent over the last 12 months; this compares to a 1.5-percent annual increase over the last 10 years. All of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the period. By far the largest increase was that of the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which rose 12.5 percent over the year despite falling in December. The index for dairy and related products increased 1.6 percent, the smallest increase among the groups.
The index for food away from home rose 6.0 percent over the last year, the largest increase since January 1982. The index for limited service meals rose 8.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for full service meals rose 6.6 percent. The index for food at employee sites and schools, in contrast, declined 49.3 percent over the past 12 months, reflecting widespread free lunch programs.
Energy
The energy index declined 0.4 percent in December; this followed a 3.5-percent increase in November and was its first decrease since April 2021. The gasoline index fell 0.5 percent in December after rising 6.1 percent in both November and October. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 2.2 percent in December.) The index for natural gas also declined in December, falling 1.2 percent after rising in each of the last 10 months. The electricity index, in contrast, rose in December, increasing 0.3 percent, the same increase as in November.
The energy index rose 29.3 percent over the past 12 months with all major energy component indexes increasing. The gasoline index rose 49.6 percent over the last year. The index for natural gas rose 24.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the electricity index rose 6.3 percent.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in December. The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in December as the indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rose 0.4 percent, the same increases as in November and October. The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise, advancing 3.5 percent in December after increasing 2.5 percent in each of the prior 2 months.
The index for household furnishings and operations rose 1.1 percent over the month as the indexes for furniture and bedding and for housekeeping supplies increased. The apparel index rose 1.7 percent over the month, its largest increase since January 2021. The index for new vehicles continued to rise, increasing 1.0 percent in December; this was its eighth consecutive monthly increase of at least 1.0 percent.
The medical care index rose 0.3 percent in December. The index for hospital services increased 0.2 percent and the index for prescription drugs rose 0.1 percent, while the index for physicians’ services was unchanged. Other indexes that rose in December include airline fares (+2.7 percent), personal care (+0.5 percent), tobacco (+0.7 percent), and education (+0.1 percent).
In contrast to these increases, the motor vehicle insurance index fell 1.5 percent in December after declining 0.8 percent the prior month. The recreation index fell 0.2 percent in December, the same decline as last month. The communication index was unchanged over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 5.5 percent over the past 12 months, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1991. Major contributors to this increase include shelter (+4.1 percent) and used cars and trucks (+37.3 percent). However, the increase is broad-based, with virtually all component indexes showing increases over the past 12 months.
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 7.0 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 278.802 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 7.8 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 273.925 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 6.9 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.
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The Consumer Price Index for January 2022 is scheduled to be released on Thursday, February 10, 2022 at 8:30 a.m. (ET).
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on December 2021 Consumer Price Index Data
Data collection by personal visit for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) program has been suspended almost entirely since March 16, 2020. When possible, data normally collected by personal visit were collected either online or by phone. Additionally, data collection in December was affected by the temporary closing or limited operations of certain types of establishments. These factors resulted in an increase in the number of prices considered temporarily unavailable and imputed. While the CPI program attempted to collect as much data as possible, many indexes are based on smaller amounts of collected prices than usual, and a small number of indexes that are normally published were not published this month.
For each month from March 2020 to December 2021, BLS has published a summary of the impact of the pandemic on the Consumer Price Index news release and data. The impact summary for December is available at www.bls.gov/covid19/consumer-price-index-covid19-impacts-december-2021.htm. Beginning with publication of January 2022 data in February 2022, this month-specific impact summary will be discontinued. However, information related to the impact of the pandemic will continue to be available at www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-consumer-price-index.htm.
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Technical Note
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the total U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self- employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation for all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U). The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is based on the expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition that meet two requirements: more than one-half of the household's income must come from clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of the household's earners must have been employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous 12 months. The CPI-W population represents about 29 percent of the total U.S. population and is a subset of the CPI-U population.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas across the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service establishments). All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 75 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or telephone calls by the Bureau’s trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are aggregated using weights, which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U, data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to three subsequent quarterly revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the CPI-U and the CPI-W, the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100. An increase of 7 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively, that relationship can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket of goods and services rising from $100 to $107.
Sampling Error in the CPI
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12-month percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the estimated standard error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S. all items CPI. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these estimates will be within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail prices. For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are 95 percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the latest data, including information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/variance-estimates/home.htm.
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period, while percent changes are not. The following table shows an example of using index values to calculate percent changes:
Item A Item B Item C Year I 112.500 225.000 110.000 Year II 121.500 243.000 128.000 Change in index points 9.000 18.000 18.000 Percent change 9.0/112.500 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/225.000 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/110.000 x 100 = 16.4 Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data. Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA- SEATS seasonal adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are used to revise the previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors are available at www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/seasonal-factors-2021.xlsx. For more information on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal Adjustment at www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm and the Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes at www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodology-changes.htm.
For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year—such as price movements resulting from weather events, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for the time of year. The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually.
Intervention Analysis
The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment for some CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern of price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which the distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data.
For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the 2009 return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this outlier data during seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal portion of the time series data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data prior to seasonal adjustment. Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on this “prior adjusted” data. These seasonal factors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal pattern in the data. The last step is for motor fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the unadjusted data.
For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2021, BLS adjusted 72 series using intervention analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity, and vehicles.
Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes
Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject to revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 years of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to be final and not subject to revision. For January 2021, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted indexes for 2016 to 2020 were calculated and published. For series which are directly adjusted using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors for 2020 will be applied to data for 2021 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2021 indexes. Series which are indirectly seasonally adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component series have seasonal factors which are derived and are therefore not available in advance.
Determining Seasonal Status
Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its status from "not seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be changed. Thirty-four of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted for 2021.
Contact Information
For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information and Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov.
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm or contact the CPI seasonal adjustment section at 202-691-6968 or cpiseas@bls.gov.
Source: BLS
