California and National Drought Summary for July 7, 2015
Summary
A strong frontal system passed through the eastern half of the country at the beginning of the Drought Monitor period, with another system toward the end. Much of the southern Midwest and into the Tennessee Valley received significant rains from these two events, bringing with them drought relief. The Pacific Northwest remained very warm and dry all the way into areas of western Montana. Scattered convective precipitation was observed over much of the southeast and central plains and into New England.Great Plains
Mixed precipitation patterns, which are common for this time of year, brought good precipitation to portions of South Dakota and northern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, most of Oklahoma and into the panhandle of Texas. These areas were 1-3 inches above normal for precipitation for the week. Areas of North Dakota, central and western Kansas, and central and south Texas were below normal for precipitation this week. Temperatures were below normal for most of the southern plains, while most of northern areas, especially along the western high plains, had above-normal temperatures, with departures of up to 2 degrees above normal. In response to the rains this week and a wetter pattern over the last several weeks, a full category improvement was made to the D0 and D1 conditions in South Dakota and Nebraska this week, leaving behind a small area of D0. No other changes were made, but it was noted that parts of central to western Kansas were drying out; those areas are in need of some precipitation or the drought status will need to show the worsening conditions.Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico
No changes were made in Hawaii this week. In Puerto Rico, D0 was expanded along the coastal regions to the west and D2 was expanded in the east. A new area of D3 was introduced in the eastern areas of Puerto Rico this week as well, bringing the first time that D3 has been depicted on Puerto Rico since the beginning of the United States Drought Monitor. Water rationing and low aquifers are the main impacts being felt at this time. In Alaska, D1 was introduced in the southern panhandle while D0 and D1 was expanded in the central portions of the state in response to the warm and dry conditions.Midwest
Precipitation was mixed this week over the region, with Kentucky, Missouri, southern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin recording the greatest precipitation. For the month of June, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio had their wettest Junes ever (in 121 years of records). Temperatures for the week were well below normal, and many parts of the region recorded temperatures 4-6 degrees below normal. With the rains during this week and along with the generally wet pattern over the last several months, improvements were made in Kentucky, where all the remaining D0 was removed this week. The D0 conditions in Minnesota and Wisconsin were eliminated as well, with the recent wet pattern given more consideration compared to some of the lingering long-term issues that have plagued the area. The consensus is that conditions warrant the removal of D0 at this time.Southeast
Heavy rains impacted portions of Tennessee and northern Alabama and Mississippi, with some locations recording up to 8 inches of rain in southeast Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The region recorded below-normal temperatures for the week, with departures 2-4 degrees below normal. Portions of south Florida and the coast of North Carolina did have above-normal temperatures, with readings generally 2-3 degrees above normal. Most of the region did receive above-normal precipitation for the week, but pockets of dryness exist in many places, including the Carolinas and the east coast of Florida. A full category improvement was made to drought conditions in Tennessee, and D0 was also removed from southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. The D0 and D1 conditions were improved in northern Alabama, northern Mississippi and northwest Georgia in response to the rains this week. A new area of D0 was introduced into southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle. In south Florida, D3 was introduced along the southeast coast while both D2 and D1 were shifted to the north and west, respectively.The Northeast/ Mid-Atlantic
Cool temperatures and scattered precipitation were common throughout the area, with most places 2-4 degrees below normal for the week. Above-normal precipitation was common from West Virginia into Pennsylvania and parts of southern New England. The wetter pattern of the last several weeks has allowed for recovery to many of the drought areas during this time. Assessing the response on the indicators allowed for further improvements in Massachusetts this week, with D1 and D0 reduced. The long-term conditions continue to improve, with some lingering dryness at longer time frames.West
Most of the region was warm during the last week with temperatures 9-13 degrees above normal in the Pacific Northwest and 3-4 degrees above normal over most of the rest of the region. Idaho, Utah, Washington, Oregon, and California all had their warmest June ever (121 years of data) while Nevada had their second warmest, Wyoming their fourth warmest, and Montana their fifth warmest. There was light precipitation scattered throughout the region, with the greatest amounts generally in portions of the southwest. Washington had their third driest June and Oregon their ninth driest June ever. The heat and dryness in the Pacific Northwest led to intensification, which is being introduced this week. The D0 in western Oregon was changed to D1 while in Washington, D2 was expanded in the west and eastern portions of the state and D0 was replaced by D1 in the east. It has been noted that so far, municipal water supplies for the metropolitan areas of western Oregon and Washington are adequate even though the other indicators are showing intense drought development, especially over the last two months. In Montana, D3 was introduced in the west while D2 expanded to the east. In the north central portions of Montana, D1 and D0 were expanded slightly. These changes were mainly in response to the rapid short-term degradation and the impact to agriculture in Montana.Looking Ahead
Over the next 5-7 days, precipitation chances look to remain the greatest over the Midwest, where 2-3 inches of rain is forecast from Illinois to Ohio. Rain chances over the west, particularly over northern California, northwest Nevada, southern Oregon, and central Idaho and into the Rocky Mountains, looks to increase, with up to 2 inches possible. The northern plains looks to remain on the dry side as well as the southeast and most of Texas. Rain chances along the Gulf Coast and into Florida look favorable, with amounts up to 1 inch over most areas. Temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal over much of the west and Midwest while warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected on the plains and in the southeast.The 6-10 day outlooks show that much of the country has high chances of above-normal temperatures. The greatest chances of above-normal temperatures appear to be over the southeast, Alaska, and the northern plains. Precipitation chances are greatest over the eastern third of the country and the northern plains while the best chances of below-normal precipitation appear to be in the southern plains.
Author(s):
Brian Fuchs, National Drought Mitigation Center
Dryness Categories
D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.Drought Intensity Categories
D1 ... Moderate DroughtD2 ... Severe Drought
D3 ... Extreme Drought
D4 ... Exceptional Drought
Drought or Dryness Types
S ... Short-Term, typically <6 months (e.g. agricultural, grasslands)L ... Long-Term, typically >6 months (e.g. hydrology, ecology)
Source: The National Drought Mitigation Center
