June 9, 2024 - Below are five charts on how indicators like presidential approval and betting odds have (or haven’t) changed post-conviction
The guilty verdict of former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is old news at this point.
In the aftermath of the verdict, what can we tell about the impact the verdict might have on the 2024 presidential race? Most horserace polls haven’t shifted significantly. But what about the indicators that typically have some predictive power when it comes to presidential elections?
Below are five charts on how indicators like presidential approval and betting odds have (or haven’t) changed post-conviction.
- Stable perception. Before the verdict, most Americans viewed both Trump and Biden unfavorably. The verdict hasn’t changed this, at least so far. Views of each candidate are baked in.
- Does the verdict help Biden? Trump’s guilty verdict doesn’t seem to be making Biden look better by comparison – Biden’s approval continues to hover around the 40%, 50-50 odds range.
- Will consumer confidence change? Not a lot has been able to move consumer confidence recently. Will the verdict be different? We will see.
- Betting markets hardly nudge. Betting odds shifted slightly immediately after the verdict, but just about stabilized a week later. Given that betting odds have sometimes done better at predicting the outcome of presidential races than polls, consider this another data point reinforcing the idea that the verdict has had a minimal impact on the race.
- The verdict is mobilizing Republicans. One of the few things that have changed after the verdict: Republicans grew more likely to say they would vote for Trump.
In 2016, Trump famously said he could “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody” and not lose any voters. That might be harder for him to pull off now, but the same idea seems to be holding true today.
Trump has long been a champion of the anti-establishment. As such, it isn’t all that surprising that he’s impervious to challenges that would doom a more typical candidate. That said, just because the conviction isn’t a death sentence for his campaign doesn’t mean it helps him. It just means we’re in the same super-tight race we were in before. Prepare for a bumpy ride.
Source: Ipsos
