June 18, 2024 - Washington, DC – The latest survey conducted by Ipsos on behalf of Politico Magazine finds trust in key components of the legal system has decreased among Republicans in the wake of the guilty verdict in the New York state hush money case against Donald Trump. Secondary analysis shows that one in five Americans say they are less likely to support Donald Trump for president in the upcoming election and the verdict plays an important role in how they will vote.
Full Survey Results
Detailed Findings:
Compared to a July 2023 survey (49%), the number of Republicans who say they trust state court judges a great deal or a fair amount has dropped ten points, to just 39% . On the other hand, trust among Democrats increased from July 2023 from 48% to 61% in June 2024. Trust among independents is statistically unchanged from July 2023. Republican trust of district attorneys, state attorneys, and prosecuting attorneys (32%) has also declined nine points since July 2023 (41%). Perceptions among Democrats and independents is statistically unchanged (55% and 47% respectively) from July 2023 (50% and 42%).
Republicans are also less likely to say that current or former elected officials get special breaks in the criminal justice system (55%) than they did in July 2023 (72%). Democrats (72%) and independents' (67%) perceptions are statistically unchanged since July 2023 (75% and 67% respectively).
Ipsos conducted a secondary analysis of the data by cross referencing responses on how the verdict is likely to impact how Americans vote and if the verdict is important in making that choice. The secondary analysis shows a plurality of Americans say that the verdict has no impact on their likelihood of voting for Trump and it is not important in decision making process (40%). While 6% of Americans say that they are more likely to support Trump and the conviction is important to how they will vote. One fifth of Americans (22%) say they are less likely to support Trump for the presidency and the conviction is important.
About the Study
This Ipsos poll was conducted June 7-9, 2024 on behalf of Reuters using the KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative sample of 1,027 U.S. residents, age 18 or older.
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.09 for all adults. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.
The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.
The study was conducted in English. The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, and household income. Party ID benchmarks are from the 2023 NPORS annual survey. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS).
About Ipsos
Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people.
Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.
Our tagline "Game Changers" sums up our ambition to help our 5,000 customers move confidently through a rapidly changing world.
Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and Mid-60 indices and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP
Source: Ipsos
