June 23, 2024 - Most national election polling conducted this far suggests that we’re in for a close race this November. Given these razor-thin margins, swing states may be as important as ever.

Where do swing state voters stand when it comes to the election? Ipsos’ new swing state poll, conducted in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, explored just that.

Below are five charts on the issues that Americans in swing states find important, how they feel about the election, and how they plan to vote this upcoming November.

1. In swing states, the election remains close. Just as it is nationally, across these seven swing states, the election is roughly a tie.
2. How different generations are feeling. Conventional wisdom suggests younger Americans vote Democrat and older Americans vote Republican. That doesn’t seem to be the case in these swing states. Watch this space.
3. What issues are swing state voters most concerned about? First and foremost, inflation. Immigration and political extremism are secondary concerns, though slightly higher in the two southwestern states. In fact, the issue landscape among swing state residents is similar to the issue landscape at the national level.
4. Trump dominates on the issues. Swing state residents prefer Trump to Biden on most of the polled issues. Trump also has a strong grasp over the two biggest issues among swing state residents – inflation and immigration.
5. How the issues impact vote intent. Likely voters that are concerned about inflation or immigration by far prefer Trump. Biden, on the other hand, does better among likely voters who feel political extremism is a major problem facing the nation.

We at Ipsos like to say that the candidate who performs better at the main issue wins the election roughly 85% of the time. Although inflation has slowed down, it remains top of mind for most Americans both at the national level and in the swing states, keeping it as relevant as ever when it comes to the election.

That said, it’s still early. Will the upcoming presidential debate change anyone’s mind? We will see.
Source: Ipsos