Full Report

June 29, 2024 - Washington DC – A majority of likely voters who watched the first 2024 Presidential debate felt that Republican candidate Donald Trump performed the best, according to a two-wave 538/Ipsos poll of likely voters conducted in the days leading up to and immediately after the debate. Even so, less than half of these debate watchers felt that Trump’s performance was good or excellent. The poll also finds that belief in President Joe Biden’s mental and physical fitness to be president slightly declined after the debate, particularly among Democrats. However, in spite of Biden’s low-rated performance, many likely voters report that they are still likely to consider voting for Biden.

Read 538's piece here.

Separately, Ipsos also held a focus group immediately after the debate with six undecided voters. The discussion found that while Biden clearly lost the debate, Trump didn't necessarily win it. Read more here.

Detailed findings

1. Ratings of Biden’s mental and physical fitness to be president declined following the debate.
   1. Before the debate, 27% of likely voters rated Biden as good or excellent when it came to his mental fitness to be president. Following the debate, that level declined to 20%. The decline was steepest among Democratic respondents, going from 56% before the debate to 42% after the debate.
   2. These levels also saw sharp declines among Black respondents (-15 percentage points), those aged 65+ (-11), and those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (-10).
   3. Ratings of Trump’s mental (39% pre-debate, 41% post-debate) and physical (43%, 45%) fitness were stable.
2. Most debate watchers say Trump performed best in the debate.
   1. Three in five debate watchers said Trump performed best in the presidential debate, compared to 21% who said the same of Biden. One in five (19%) said they don’t know who performed best.
   2. That said, under half of debate watchers say Trump’s performance in the debate was good or excellent (40%). A quarter said he had a mixed performance (25%), while one in three said his performance was poor or terrible (33%).
   3. Three in four debate watchers said Biden’s performance was poor or terrible (73%). Just 8% said his performance was excellent or good.
3. Despite the poor ratings of Biden’s performance, few respondents are no longer considering voting for Biden.
   1. Among respondents who completed both the pre- and post-debate survey, just 4% are giving less consideration to voting for Biden. In comparison, 2% are giving less consideration to voting for Trump following the debate.
   2. As a whole, in the pre-debate wave, 44% of respondents reported that they were considering voting for Biden. This was unchanged in the post-debate wave, where 46% said the same of Biden.
   3. The percent of respondents considering voting for Trump (44% pre-debate, 44% post-debate) and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (18% pre-debate, 18% post-debate) was also unchanged.
4. Debate watchers feel the debate did a mixed job at covering a range of topics.
   1. A plurality of debate watchers rated the performance of the moderators as about average (40%). Two in five rated the performance of the moderators as excellent or very good (43%), while 15% said the moderators had a poor or terrible performance.
   2. A plurality of debate watchers said the debate did a mixed job at covering a range of specific issues, including foreign policy (44%), abortion policy (41%), and how to build the American economy (44%).
   3. On most issues, debate watchers were more likely to feel the debate did a terrible or poor job than an excellent or good job, particularly on political extremism or polarization (42% poor/terrible vs. 12% excellent/good) and reducing crime and promoting public safety (42% vs. 10%).

About the Study

This 538/Washington Post/Ipsos post-debate poll was conducted June 27 to June 28, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. The pre-debate wave of this poll was based on a nationally-representative probability sample of adults age 18 or older fielded June 20 to June 25, 2024, screened to those that indicated they are likely to vote in the November Presidential election (N=5,058). This post-debate wave, which this topline reports, was administered to the same sample of respondents who took part in the pre-debate wave. Of those, 2,543 responded to the post-wave survey and 1,700 reported watching all or part of the debate.

The margin of sampling error among all those that responded to the post debate poll is 2.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The margin of sampling error among those who watched all or part of the debate is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.14 for all respondents and 1.13 for debate watchers. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The post-debate survey weight factors are the same as those from the pre-debate. As such, the weighted total for post-debate respondents and debate watchers do not match their respective sample sizes.

The weights for the post-debate respondents were not adjusted to account for the nonresponding pre-debate sample.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the U.S. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. Non-responders were sent reminders to increase participation.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Party ID benchmarks are from the 2023 National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS) from Pew Research Center. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelor, Masters and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Something else, Lean Democrat, Democrat)

No respondents were removed from the final data for refusing all of the survey items.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

Our tagline "Game Changers" sums up our ambition to help our 5,000 customers move confidently through a rapidly changing world.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and Mid-60 indices and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com
Source: Ipsos