August 31, 2024 - Washington DC — The latest Reuters/Ipsos national poll—conducted August 21-28, 2024—shows that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has a small four-percentage-point lead among registered voters over Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump. The survey also shows that the events of the presidential campaigns so far have had a greater reported impact on Democrats’ level of enthusiasm than Republicans’.

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Detailed findings:

• Among registered voters, Harris receives 45% of the vote share and Trump receives 41% of the vote share; meanwhile, 3% of registered voters say they would vote for some other candidate, 3% say they would not vote altogether, and 7% say they don’t know.

• When including the names of third-party candidates, the results are not overly impacted: Harris receives 44% of the vote share, Trump receives 40%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 6%, and other candidates receive 1% or less each. The survey was in field during the time of Kennedy’s announcement to end his campaign and endorse Trump.

• At the national level, 42% of registered voters say they would support a Democratic candidate for Congress, while 41% say they would support a Republican candidate if the election for U.S. Congress were held today.

• The events of the presidential campaigns have made Democratic registered voters more excited about voting in November when compared to Republican registered voters. 

• The majority of Democratic registered voters say they are more excited about voting in November because Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign (58%), because Harris entered the race for the Democratic nomination (73%), because Harris chose Tim Walz as her running mate (56%), and because they watched and/or attended the Democratic National Convention (52%).  

• In comparison, only 35% of Republican registered voters are more excited about voting in November after watching and/or attending the Republican National Convention, and just 38% say they are more excited now that Trump has chosen JD Vance as his running mate. 

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted August 21-28, 2024 on behalf of Reuters using the KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative sample of 4,253 U.S. residents, age 18 or older.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.11 for all adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.7 percentage points for registered voters. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, Census region, education, household income, metropolitan status, and political party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Political Party benchmarks came from NPORS 2024. More details about the weighting benchmarks for this study can be found below:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelors and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Democrat, Lean Democrat, Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Something else)

About Ipsos

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Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

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