October 25, 2024 - Washington, DC - A new Scripps News/Ipsos poll finds that a majority of Americans and Wisconsin residents* are willing to accept the election results if their preferred candidate loses. In the same vein, about three in five are also confident that all votes will be accurately counted, but partisan divides exist.

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However, a majority of both Americans and Wisconsin residents also expect there to be violence related to political outcomes following Election Day. And while few support their candidate using violence to win, support exists for using the U.S. military to stop any potential threat of violence around Election Day.

*Note: The survey is among U.S. adults 18+ and contained an oversample of an extra n=300 Wisconsin residents in order to analyze findings within that state separately. 

Detailed findings:

1. A strong majority of Americans and Wisconsin residents are willing to accept the election results if their preferred candidate loses.

• Seventy-seven percent of both Americans and Wisconsin residents are willing to accept the results, if their preferred candidates loses. Among all Americans, a majority across all political affiliations share this sentiment.
• Three in five Americans (63%) and Wisconsin residents (62%) are confident that all votes will be accurately counted.
• Among all Americans, Democrats (86%) and independents (61%) are more likely than Republicans (52%) to have confidence in the vote counting this election.
• There is significantly less optimism about the state of U.S. democracy. Just 31% of Americans and 30% of Wisconsin residents view it as strong; a majority of both believe U.S. democracy is weak (56% and 59%, respectively).
• As Election Day approaches, when asked how to best describe their feelings, the most selected attribute is anxious (37% of Americans, 39% of Wisconsin residents).

2. While a majority are willing to accept the results, Americans fear potential political violence due to the outcome. Few would condone their candidate winning if violence is involved.

• Sixty-two percent of Americans believe it is likely that there will be violence related to political outcomes following Election Day. Even more Wisconsin residents (72%) feel the same.
• However, few agree that they are fine if their preferred candidate wins by any means necessary, even if violence is involved (8% of Americans, 5% of Wisconsin residents).
• Along these lines, a slim majority of Americans (51%) and Wisconsin residents (53%) support using the U.S. military to stop any potential threat of violence around Election Day.
• Even as about half of Americans support this measure, Republicans (61%) are more likely than Democrats (51%) and independents (50%) to do so.

3. Two in three Americans support a law protecting access to IVF treatment.

• Sixty-five percent of Americans and 70% of Wisconsin residents support the federal government passing a law protecting access to IVF treatment.
• A majority also support a federal law mandating health insurance companies pay for IVF treatment for those who need it (55% of Americans, 56% of Wisconsin residents).
  • Women are more likely than men to support this measure (60% vs 50%).
  • Americans under 35 are more likely to support this measure than their older counterparts (65% vs 50-52%).
• However, significantly fewer support the federal government paying for IVF treatment for those who need it.
  • Americans under 35 are significantly more likely than their older counterparts to support this measure (51% vs 27-36%).

About the Study

This Scripps News/Ipsos poll was conducted by Ipsos from October 18 to October 20, 2024, using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,028 adults age 18 or older. The sample includes 328 respondents that are currently residents of Wisconsin.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the U.S. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The study was conducted in English. The data for the national gen pop sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, and household income. Party ID benchmarks are from the 2023 National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS). The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS).

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45-59 and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other, Non-Hispanic, Hispanic, 2+ Races, Non-Hispanic)
• Education (Less than High School, High School, Some College, Bachelor degree, Master’s degree or above)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Republican, Leans Republican, Independent/Other, Democrat, Leans Democrat)

The data for the Wisconsin gen pop sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, metropolitan status, and household income, and 2020 Presidential vote choice. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS).

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–44, 45–59, 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, All Others)
• Education (Less than High School or High School, Some College, Bachelor degree, Master’s degree or above)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $75,000, $75,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• 2020 Vote (Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Someone else, Did not vote)

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the national gen pop sample. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.18. For the Wisconsin gen pop sample, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 6.0 percentage points, and the design effect is 1.23.

The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent

About Ipsos

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Source: Ipsos