The states and counties that could decide the election
November 3, 2024 - Regardless of how the momentum pendulum is swinging, most signals suggest that the 2024 Presidential race is unbelievably tight. This means that more than likely, it’ll all come down to the seven “swing states” which are poised to play an outsized role in determining the next U.S. President.
In particular, the three “blue wall” swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin could take a prominent role in either former President Donald Trump’s or Vice President Kamala Harris’ path to victory. If Harris wins these three historically Democratic states, combined with the 225 electoral college votes that currently lean her way, she reaches the necessary 270 electoral college votes to clinch the election. If Trump can take one or more of these states, Harris’ path to victory becomes a lot less clear.
In 2016, Trump’s surprise victory in these states helped propel him to the Oval Office. Last election cycle, Joe Biden was able to reclaim these states in his path to victory. In fact, these three states have voted for the winner of the general election in each of the past four election cycles.
It’s more than likely that we won’t know who won the election by the end of Election Day. But there are regions in these three states that could foreshadow who will be stepping inside the Oval Office in January before we know the final result.
Below are five charts on how the election is shaping up heading into November 5th, how the swing states are looking, and a few key counties in these swing states to watch on Election Day.
- Turnout dip? The record levels of turnout that happened in 2020 seems unlikely to happen again. Voters are slightly less enthusiastic compared to 2020 across most demographics. Republicans should be concerned about the drop in enthusiasm among lean Republican Americans, while drops among younger and Black Americans are cause for concern for Democrats. Higher-than-expected turnout among these demos could swing the election. Watch this space.
- More valuable votes. In the U.S., every voter gets one vote. It’s just that some votes are more valuable than others. It’s no surprise candidates and their running mates have held the vast majority of their campaign events in the swing states and have seemingly put in a much more deliberate effort to grab their attention.
- Pennsylvania. Of the three blue wall swing states, Pennsylvania is currently the least favorable to Harris (though the three are all well within the margin of error). Biden was able to eat into Trump’s 2016 gains in the state, including in his home county of Lackawanna. Erie County, which went to Obama twice, Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020, will also be crucial for Harris. Can Harris maintain Biden’s 2020 results?
- Wisconsin. Ozaukee County, once deeply red, has been hemorrhaging support for Republican candidates over the past few elections and could provide a window into whether Harris can rally enough support among crucial suburban voters this cycle.
- Michigan. Much has been made of Harris’ losses of Muslim support. Harris’ level of support in Wayne County, home to the majority-Middle Eastern city of Dearborn, could be telling to how the state as a whole will head. Harris will also look to hold onto Biden’s gains in the boomerang county of Saginaw.
Though things seem to have slightly shifted in Trump’s favor in the final few weeks before the election, it’s still anybody’s game. With gaffes from Republicans and Democrats in the final week, it really is coming down to the wire. Emotions are running high. No matter who wins, some Americans will likely feel disenfranchised. Getting to Election Day is only part one; be prepared for the aftermath. There’s no telling how this election will end.
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Source: Ipsos
